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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: Re:Shout Out TO Coach

Jan 06, 2008 04:49PM

Hi Myer!

I should point out the obvious: I am still optimistic, or I would not be here and would no longer be a shareholder of ECU.

Can the share price recover? I do not see anything new in the world today that would suggest to me that the correction we are going through with ECU is unique or unprecidented. It has dragged on longer than I would like to see, and I am frustrated because the fundamentals overall for the sector are so bullish, but it is still normal behaviour for mining stocks. The pattern in a bull market is that stocks run to new highs of several hundred percent, and then retrace and consolidate, then run to new highs again. For ECU the resources that are presented and the updated exploration work continue to build shareholder value, so I would think that will be priced into much higher results sooner or later.

I should also add that I know of quite a few juniors that had very little real value to offer investors, yet they rebounded as part of this historic pattern. If a junk company with little to offer can recover, then I am confident a solid company that is achieving success will also be capable of a rebound.

I am not sure how much the delay in the NI43-101 report is an issue of the credibility of management. Since the report must be prepared and completed by an outside consultant, and it is beyond the control of management, why should it be the fault of management that the report has been delayed. Is the objective to present a document exactly on time within an expected deadline, OR is it more important that that document reveals the largest possible total resource, in the highest category of confidence, regardless of any extra delay that is involved? I cannot advise you on how to make that judgement. It will be out when it comes out, and I consider the content far more important than the timing, but that is just my opinion.

As for raising new money, I do not think that will be an issue either. ECU will be able to find participants for any new share offering when they decide to go to market. But you probably have a valid point in terms of the dilution issue. Hopefully, the entire sector will regain some speculative appeal, and ECU will probably increase in value along with the rest of the group. If the company needed to raise another $5-6 million and could do so with the issuance of 2 million or so shares, then I think that is not a big dilution event. IF they need to raise $20 million, then it would be.

I see so much chatter on the forums about the share structure. There is no fixed limit on the number of outstanding shares a company can issue. What is important is the value per share. If ECU had 300 million shares outstanding, and a resource of 300 million ounces of silver, I do not think it is at a disadvantage to a company with 100 million shares out and a resource of 100 million ounces. And it is a moot point anyway because there are so few companies out there with defined resources of that magnitude. Goldcorp has over 700 million shares outstanding, and yet it is regarded as one of the more attractive stocks. As long as ECU can deliver value in excess of the ongoing dilution, then I am not opposed. The funding has to come from somewhere, and I prefer equity to debt. I would also point out that most of the effect of the cheap shares from years past is already baked in, now that the warrants have been cashed in, and significant turnover of the shares has occurred during the consolidation process.

The biggest weakness for ECU going forward is that so many of the outstanding shares are in the hands of retail investors. As long as investors are frustrated and impatient, then we can expect more of the same in the trading. When greed eventually overpowers fear, as it tends to do in a bull market, then there not be much discussion about the share structure. JMHO...

cheers!

mike

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