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Message: Casey Research precious metals comment this morning

Casey Research precious metals comment this morning

posted on Nov 15, 2008 07:02AM

Precious Metals

Gold made it a second straight winning day when, after plodding along unchanged into the New York session, it got a pop that eventually took it past $750 by the early Globex, but it then eased into a finish at $742.30, up $7.40. For the week, gold was up a scant 0.5%.

Platinum had as flat a day as possible, staying almost entirely between $830 and $840, and ending at $833/oz., up $5. For the week, platinum was down 1.4%.

Silver pushed to $9.60 in the first hour in New York, but that was it as it fell back and then traded sideways, closing at $9.47/oz., up 10 cents. For the week, silver lost 5.9%. (Click here for charts)

It was a day of relatively modest gains for gold and silver, but at least there were some gains to be happy about. It could easily have gone the other way as crude slipped lower, the dollar edged higher vs. the euro, and domestic equities markets plummeted late in the session.

Looking ahead, Peter Spina, of Goldforecaster.com, presented a view that jibes with our own.

Spina wrote that gold has “some terrific support around $700 and with the strength in the Euro, it helped to motivate upside momentum. The $750 (spot) area is a formidable resistance so a close above this resistance area would open the short-term window to further upside moves.

“There have been other positive factors emerging from the gold investment markets. We received news this week of an unprecedented surge in Saudi gold purchases in the prior two weeks with over $3.5 BILLION being acquired. At the same time, South African gold mine supply has taken another tumble, down over 17% year over year. A sharp rise in physical gold investments combined with a drop in mine supply are turning into key ingredients for a well supported gold price.

“Going forward, the US Dollar is in its final mid-term leg higher, nearing the end of its massive short-covering rally while other short-term driving forces diminish. True long-term fundamentals do not support a strong US Dollar and as it begins to once again return back to its long-term secular bear market the gold price will accelerate its appeal among dollar, euro and other paper currency holders. We are just entering into the next stage of the global currency crisis which will ultimately drive gold prices significantly higher over the coming months and years.”

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