A few noteworthy charts from B.I.G. this morning...

Regards - VHF

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Gold Price Chart

While the outlook for Federal debt and spending continues to rise, the price of gold has actually declined by more than 5% since closing above $1,000 on Friday (2/20). A look at that chart, however, shows that the price of gold remains comfortably above its 50-day moving average (889) and the one-year downtrend line that was in place since last Spring. As long as the price stays above these two price points, this week's sell-off is nothing more than a pullback from overbought levels.

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Durable Goods Orders Down More Than 20%

If January's Durable Goods report is any indication, 2009 didn't start off on a good economic note. As shown in the chart below, durable goods orders for the month declined by 23.3% on a year/year basis, which is the steepest decline in the history of the indicator (since 1960). If we strip out the transportation component of this series, orders for durable goods declined by a more "modest" 17.4%, which is the lowest level since 1975.

With January's 5.2% decline versus December, durable goods orders have now either been flat or down for six straight months. Since 1960, there have only been four other periods where this has occurred (1967, 1970, 1975, and 1981). In two of these periods, durable goods orders rose in the seventh month, and in the other two periods durable goods orders declined for a seventh month before turning positive.