Re: The "spin" as predicted....
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 11, 2010 09:07PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Sorry Ororico et al for my misleading post. What I intended was that I was considering selling YRI ( more gold than silver)for SLW since silver may have the real leverage over gold now...and head back towards its average ratio of 16 to 1 gold versus the now 64 to 1. Over and above those factors, I was thinking it may be a prescient time to just pick up more ECU.
I'm just thinking out loud basically and not making recommendations. After all, I haven't exactly been a shit hot investor lately. ..being a JPM gold bug. What intrigues us all is the pregnancy of the situation and the explosive potential for silver.
Your points are well taken but I think once the "surprise" happens in silver, all bets are off and those well positoned in stocks like ECU will need seat belts. It appears as though we have all been psychologically eroded into thinking that it is all "business as usual" and all our sensors and projection fundamentals have been totally depressed/diluted by years of water torture. We have been set up and I do think not it will be "business as usual" much longer. There is blood in the water and we long suffering longs must be ready to take advantage of the greedy big buggers that are already planning to make huge profit going long the PMs and the JPMs.
Here is that bit from Sinclair tonight:
"
The Shift Between Gold Share Categories
Posted: Oct 19 2009 By: Jim Sinclair
Dear Friends,
There are various categories of gold shares.
1. The most popular are the majors…
2. Junior producers are entities that have opened production facilities which are modest or not yet at full capacity…
3. Exploration and development issues have been the favorite of the mix of all gold share categories for short operations. The gold explorer business is capital intensive, so if the price can be depressed, the short starves the company of its ability to finance. Before you can have production you must pay all the costs of exploration which usually comes from seed capital. In the last five years there has been practically NO seed capital anywhere for gold.
There are other categories and as a company transmutes between categories. In this unprecedented gold bull market price adjustments should occur with category transmutation of gold entities as they climb the ladder of success…
There is the exploration company that begins production and therefore moves up the scale toward the category of junior producer. Usually this is accompanied by improvement in price as many investment entities will not buy non-producing exploration companies.
There is the exploration company that has success and will be evaluated by the quality of its success and deal making. Historically success and deal making for such a company increases interest in the company.
It has been almost 30 years since any meaningful segment of the general marketplace has taken an interest in gold shares...
At the beginning of a gold bull market it is gold itself, then Major Producers that perform.
As gold makes its way past $1000 to $1650 and beyond, the order up to now has been Major Producers and the top half of Junior Producers benefitting with while the short attacked the bottom half of Junior Producers and all of Gold Exploration entities. Watch closely now as a shift takes place.
No short of any viable gold share can be happy this evening even though across the board they are still short and in some cases still sitting on the price.
You might have noticed recently in the heavily shorted gold situations in the bottom half of the Junior Producers and many of the viable Gold Exploration entities that there was an at the close and after close attempt to destroy prices when in some instances million of shares were sold and bought. This occurred in some cases on volumes 18 times larger (volume on the day) than the previous norm. Exchange short figures indicate that these were long buys and only minimal short covering.
The leverage is always on the bottom side of the category scale, so I anticipate that the bottom half of Junior Producers and the viable companies in Gold Exploration entities to outperform the top half of Junior Producers and Major Producers as the price of gold continues higher in late 2009 and 2010.
History tells us this is how it has always happened, and I believe it will again.
That is called leverage coming out higher gold prices, high in ground values, higher profits in the start up mining and in many cases much less shares outstanding than in the Major Producers and the top half of Junior Producers.
Gold shares presently in the more leveraged categories have practically no participation compared to other hard asset equities such as energy thanks to the action of the shorts.
In general it is more than likely the wrong time for a long suffering long to throw in the towel, but many are and will.