Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Jun 03, 2011 09:50AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Silver American Eagle Sales Best in 25 Years
"The bullion banks pulled their bids...and down went the price...as what few tech fund longs there were, were forced to sell their long contracts into a 'no bid' market."
The gold price didn't do whole heck of a lot in Far East or early London trading...and the high price tick of the day [if you wish to dignify it with that name] came during lunch in London...which is 7-8 a.m. in New York.
From there, the selling pressure began...and the gold price declined about eight bucks by the time that London closed for the day at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. Then the U.S. bullion banks pulled their bids...and that, as they say, was that. The gold price 'fell' more than $15 in less than thirty minutes...with the low of the day coming at precisely 11:30 a.m. Eastern.
From that low, gold began a decent rally which got cut off at the knees at 2:00 p.m. Eastern...and it traded sideways from there for the rest of the New York Access Market...which closed at 5:15 p.m. Volume wasn't overly heavy.
For the second day running, JPMorgan was all over the silver market. The high price of the day, around $37.30 spot, came during early London trading...and the selling pressure began the moment that the London silver fix was in at 12:00 noon local time.
By the time that London closed at 11:00 a.m. Eastern, silver was down about seventy cents from its high...and that's when JPMorgan et al pulled their bids...and silver was down another dollar in thirty minutes. The low of the day was, wait for it, at precisely 11:30 a.m. Eastern...the same moment as gold.
The subsequent rally got turned aside at the close of Comex trading...and it traded sideways from there until the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. in New York. Volume was pretty average...if you call 71,000 contracts net of all roll-overs, 'average'.
It was another day where silver was at the center of the bullion banks' universe, as gold was down 0.34%...platinum down 0.38%...palladium was flat...and silver was down 1.82%.
The dollar peaked around 74.93 shortly after trading began in the Far East on Thursday morning...and it was all down hill from there...losing a bit over 60 basis points by precisely 6:00 a.m. Eastern.
Then a smallish rally began that peaked out at precisely 11:30 a.m. Eastern. Then, in the next two hours...right up until precisely 1:30 p.m....the exact moment that the Comex closed...the dollar lost all of that gain and more, closing almost on its low of the day.
If you can make yesterday's gold and silver price movements fit on this dollar graph, you're better than I am, as there was no co-relation at all that I could see.
The gold stocks peaked at 10:00 a.m. right on the button...and the low tick came minutes after gold's low price. As gold rallied after 11:30 a.m...the stocks rallied as well...and then traded sideways from 1:00 p.m. onwards. The HUI was only down 0.65%.
The silver stocks didn't do well yesterday...and the fact that 'da boyz' didn't allow silver to rally too far after they killed the price, meant that most of the silver stocks closed closer to their lows, than their highs...although I had a couple of silver stocks close in the green. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was down 2.18% on the day.
The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 980 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. There were no silver contracts posted. The big issuer was Barclays with 900 contracts...and the big stopper [863 contracts] was JPMorgan in their proprietary [house] trading account. The report is worth a quick look...and the link is here.
The GLD ETF showed no changes yesterday...and their was a minor withdrawal of 140,449 ounces from SLV, which might have been a fee payment of some sort.
The U.S. Mint reported selling 25,000 silver eagles yesterday...and nothing else.
There was a big withdrawal from the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, as 820,330 ounces of silver were shipped out of the HSBC warehouse. The link to the action is here.
Here's a graph that Washington state reader S.A. sent me yesterday...and it doesn't require any more explanation from me. The one thing that the graph doesn't mention, is the eighteen states that don't show up on this chart. It obviously means that they have balanced budgets.
Washington state reader also provides our first reading material of the day...and it's a Bloomberg article from yesterday.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets, was subpoenaed by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office for information on the firm’s activities leading into the credit crisis, two people familiar with the matter said.
The subpoena relates to the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations report on Wall Street’s role in the collapse of the financial markets, which accused New York- based Goldman Sachs of misleading buyers of mortgage-linked investments, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the inquiry isn’t public.
The link is here.
Goldman invested $1.5 billion for the Libyan sovereign wealth fund in 2008, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. It lost 98 percent of the money.
In an effort to placate outraged Libyan officials, Goldman executives attempted to sell preferred shares of the firm to Libya.
And this is where the feeling of relief comes in.
“The last thing we need right now would be headlines reading ‘Vampire Squid Profits Funding Libyan Dictator,’” one senior Goldman investment banker told NetNet. [We agreed not to identify him, because bankers are not really supposed to talk to reporters, except under very limited and controlled circumstances.]
The United States has been bombing Libya for months—and Gadaffi is back on the list of official villains.
I'll bet you a fair amount of coin that Rolling Stone magazine's Matt Taibbi must have laughed hysterically when he read this piece...and you should too. I thank Roy Stephens for this cnbc.com story...and the link to this must read story is here.
Here's a FT story that showed up posted over at imarketnews.com. I stole it from yesterday's King Report.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said that "prices of food and energy commodities can be expected to increase at a rate greater than that of manufactured goods and services."
As a result, "headline inflation will tend to be significantly higher than core inflation, both in advanced and emerging countries," he said.
Bill King's comment on this story was as follows..."Core inflation was only useful to obfuscate real inflation, which is why it was conceived and created." He has that exactly right...and the link to this short read is here.
Greek officials slammed Moody's latest decision to push its rating lower into junk territory, saying it does not take into account the government's efforts to cut the debt.
Privately, European officials and analysts have been complaining that the bulk of the main rating agencies – two out of three – are based in the US and not always objective when it comes to rating European countries.
In Asia and Europe, officials are looking for solutions.
I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for this story...and the link is here.
Thousands fled Sana'a Thursday as tribesmen and loyalist troops battled for the third day running. Witnesses say the fighting was the fiercest so far after loyalist forces who had received US training as part of its "war on terror" joined the battle.
This very short story was posted over at france24.com yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.
A chronic drought is ravaging farmland. The Gobi Desert is inching south. The Yellow River, the so-called birthplace of Chinese civilization, is so polluted it can no longer supply drinking water. The rapid growth of megacities — 22 million people in Beijing and 12 million in Tianjin alone — has drained underground aquifers that took millenniums to fill.
Not atypically, the Chinese government has a grand and expensive solution: Divert at least six trillion gallons of water each year hundreds of miles from the other great Chinese river, the Yangtze, to slake the thirst of the north China plain and its 440 million people.
I thank reader John Sanders for sharing this must read story from the June 1st edition of The New York Times...and the link is here.
The Pampas are just as the old geography textbooks described them: vast flat plains stretching to distant horizons, white heads of tall grasses catching the autumn light. A great empty road ploughs a furrow from Buenos Aires through mile upon mile of fertile lands towards the ports on the great South American waterway, the Paraná river.
But missing from much of the Pampas now are the Argentinean beef cattle that used to be synonymous with this region that makes up one of the world's most expansive grazing lands.
The way-markers today are grain silos, agricultural hangars for harvesting machines, and banner adverts across nearly every field for agrochemicals and genetically modified soya seed.
This is another Roy Stephens offering...and it's an article out of the June 1st edition of The Guardian. The link is here.
Wall Street is tapping a real gusher in 2011, as heightened volatility and higher prices of oil and other raw materials boost banks' profits.
A group of 10 large banks—including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America and Barclays PLC—saw their commodities revenues increase by 55% in the first quarter, according to Coalition, a firm that analyzes the performance of investment banks. After a disappointing 2010, commodities was the fastest-growing segment in banks' fixed-income businesses in the first three months of this year, even though it still accounts for just 7% of banks' total fixed-income revenues, Coalition said.
Commodities trading is a bright spot for institutions that face new regulatory clampdowns on practices that previously fattened bank profit margins, such as trading with their own capital and slapping customers with hefty "overdraft" fees.
This is a story out of yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal...and it's courtesy of reader James Akers...and the link is here.
An outspoken U.S. senator who criticized the country's futures regulator for failing to crackdown on energy speculation said on Thursday he will introduce legislation next week that will force the agency to act.
Senator Bernie Sanders said the legislation would force the head of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to use emergency authority to impose limits on the positions investors can take in crude oil, gasoline and heating oil. The move could occur without support from the majority of the agency's commissioners.
This Reuters piece ended up as a GATA release yesterday...and the link is here.
In August 2006, Ted Butler observed the London Metal Exchange default (excerpts below). As we get closer to the inevitable fall of the Crimex, it seems proper to recall how the nickel default of 2006 went down.
The investment world witnessed an event that has only occurred rarely in the past. I am referring to the extraordinary developments in the nickel market on the London Metals Exchange (LME), the largest base metals exchange in the world. Due to an unprecedented scarcity of metal, the LME was forced to revise the delivery terms of its nickel contracts.
Default is a simple word. Any time you unilaterally violate or negate the terms and conditions of any legal contract, that contract is in default. Period.
Moreover, a simple analysis of the situation reveals that the LME is aligning itself with the interests of the naked shorts in nickel, as common sense should tell you that no long holder asked the exchange to suspend the delivery obligation of the shorts.
This is a must read article...as is silver analyst Ted Butler's original 2006 essay entitled "First Nickel, Then Silver". I thank reader 'David in California' for sharing this with us...and the link to both is here.
A couple of days ago I posted a King World News blog with James Turk. Eric sent me the entire audio interview last night...and the link is here.
On the 'Letters' page of The Economist last week, Nils Sandberg from Cambridge University’s Judge Business School presented a common argument against gold’s current value.
It's hard to believe that such ignorance exists...but it's in this story for all to see. One has to wonder how long it takes him to tie his shoelaces in the morning.
However, the founder & CEO of BullionVault, Paul Tustain, tees Mr. Sandberg up and drives him down the fairway with his rebuttal. This article, posted at politicalmetals.com, is worth the read...and I thank reader Tariq Khan for sending it to me. The link is here.
Here's a blog that Eric sent me late last night as a companion piece to the Turk interview. Eric headlines the piece "Embry - Silver's Drop is JP Morgan Trying to Protect Their Ass". It's a short read...and the link is here.
With sales of no less than 3.65 million ounces of new American Eagle silver coins in May, silver coin sales by the U.S. Mint are reported to be at their highest ever from U.S. Mint data going back to 1986. Indeed May sales were even 30% higher than April's 2.819 million ounces, which in itself was the best ever April on record. This brings the total sale of American Eagle silver coins to 18.9 million ounces so far this year. Last year's sales over the same period amounted to 15.2 million ounces.
This is a short piece posted over at the mineweb.com yesterday...and it's courtesy of reader George Findlay. The link is here.
Lastly today comes this piece about silver by Casey Research's own Jeff Clark. Jeff is editor of the CR publication BIG GOLD. This appeared in yesterday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch and is well worth your time.
CPM Group recently released their 2011 Silver Yearbook, one of the industry’s most comprehensive sources of information on the silver market. Though mostly a reference book, I uncovered some interesting facts that paint a decidedly bullish picture for the metal going forward.
If you’re a silver investor, or are concerned about the recent selloff, you may find the following data very compelling. It provides an inside track on the market and will certainly make us all more knowledgeable investors.
The link is here...and you have to scroll down a bit to get to it.
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Because of the crisis, we grew the too-big-to-fail banks into ever more too-big-to-fail banks — we consolidated them. Now we've got this psychology in Washington of “We can't really go after them the way we would want to or in a real manner because we could destabilize them. So let's actually just pretend there's not a problem”. That's the real danger of too-big-to-fail. When you can't enforce the rule of law because you are afraid of harming these institutions, you're really giving them a free pass and free reign to continue to take on more and more risky behaviors. - The Fed's "Fatal Flaw" - Gretchen Morgenson & Jonathan Rosner on Why Nothing's Changed Since the Crisis.
Gold's trading volume yesterday was around 140,000 contracts net of all roll-overs...and the preliminary open interest number was a shockingly low 539 contract increase, so the final number should show a big drop when it's reported later this morning.
Gold's final open interest number on Wednesday showed a chunky increase of 9,229 contracts...which is not a particularly large drop from the eye-watering preliminary number of 15,747 contracts. Gold rallied on Wednesday, but that's still a pretty big jump in open interest for such a small move in the price. We'll just have to wait until next Friday's Commitment of Traders report before we can pass judgment on it.
Silver's net volume yesterday was a bit over 72,000 contracts...and the preliminary open interest number showed an increase of 4,804 contracts, which will be much reduced when the CME reports the final figure later this a.m. I was expecting a better number than that considering that the silver price got hammered pretty good in New York yesterday...but it could have been shorts being placed...and we won't know for sure until next Friday's COT report.
Silver's final open interest number for Wednesday showed an increase of 849 contracts...which is a big drop from the 4,330 contract preliminary number. With the price drop in the electronic market in New York that afternoon, this could also have been new short positions being placed as well. We're in the dark on this as well until next Friday's COT report.
Here's the 1-year silver chart, and it's obvious that JPMorgan et al aren't taking any prisoners since the engineered price failure at the 50-day moving average. This is right out of the Technical Analysis 101 manual, so you can see that the bullion banks can paint any kind of chart pattern they want when their high frequency traders are stomping about.
It's impossible to say what JPMorgan is up to in the silver market at the moment. Are they trying to paint a double bottom...or are they gunning for the 200-day moving average...which just hit the $30.00 mark yesterday. As Ted Butler has already pointed out, there cant be that many technical fund longs left to liquidate...and I'd guess that these moves to the downside that we've seen over the last few days have not helped the bullion banks' short positions by very much.
In order to see much improvement, they would have to set new lows for this move down...and, checking the above silver chart, that would entail getting the price below $32.70...or thereabouts. And even if they do get the price down there, there's little blood left in this technical fund stone to wring out...so how much of their short position are they really going to cover by dropping to a new low...or even the 200-day moving average?
We will find out, as they say, in the fullness of time.
Not much happened in the gold market either in Far East or early London trading...and net volume is under 10,000 contracts as I write these words at 4:06 a.m. Eastern time.
It's a different matter in the silver market. The price did virtually nothing all night long...but the moment that London opened at 8:00 a.m. local time [3:00 a.m. Eastern], the bullion banks pulled their bids...and down went the price...as what few tech fund longs there were, were forced to sell their long contracts into a 'no bid' market...and the price cratered. Then JPMorgan et al pulled the same stunt a half hour later at 9:00 a.m. in London, with even less results. With the high frequency traders stomping about in the silver market, the volume is almost the same as gold's...at just under 9,000 contracts.
Today we get a couple of reports of note. The first one is the jobs number which is released around 8:30 a.m. Eastern. In the past, the bullion banks have hammered the precious metals regardless of what the report says...either positive or negative...so it will be interesting to see what they do when this report is released.
The other report is the COT report at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. When the appropriate time arrives, you can click here and check it out.
I'm off to the World Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver this morning...and I can tell you right up front that my Saturday column will be as short as I can possibly make it...and my Tuesday column may fall into the same category.
There's still time left to either readjust your portfolio...or get fully invested in the continuing major up-leg of this bull market in both silver and gold...and I respectfully suggest that you take a trial subscription to either Casey Research's International Speculator [junior gold and silver exploration companies], or BIG GOLD [large producers], with all our best [and current] recommendations...as well as the archives. A subscription to the International Speculator also includes a free subscription to BIG GOLD as well. And don't forget that our 90-day guarantee of satisfaction is in effect for both publications.
Have a good weekend...and I'll see you here on Saturday...but not too early.