Re: Priggly's Answer: News
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 04, 2011 02:03AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I stated on June 29 http://agoracom.com/ir/GoldenMinerals/forums/discussion/topics/501582-priggly-s-answer-news/messages/1598432#message
"From the AUMN 1st quarter report, ( ), AUMN has plans to spend 57.5 to 65.5 million in the remainder of this year. With the 15 million loan to ECU, they are committing 72 to 80 million of the dowery leaving a balance of 25 to 30 million at the end of the year. It would appear to me that the total funds might carry the combined company through mid year 2012. If they do not have significant production and sales they will have to obtain more funds outside the company. The Sentient Group has expressed an interest in obtaining an additional 10% of the combined company but has not made a committment. They would probably want another 3.5 million shares for a negotiated approximate $50 million.http://www.goldenminerals.com/pdfs/Press%20Release%20FINAL%2005%2003%2011%20with%20tables.pdf
If there is no significant profit within two years, the new company will be in the position ECU was in the last two years, no way to raise money and under attack by the shorts. All the resources in the ground are not worth much unless someone has the financial resources and will to extract and sell them at a profit. The resulting company worth is primarily a function of the earnings."
As it turns out, the Sentient Group bought 4.1 million shares for $31 million. They did better than I thought they would.
The additional $31 million cash is enough to carry the company through the third or fourth quarter next year and they are out of money. The Sept 30 shelf registration is approved for raising an additional $250 million by selling additional shares. I recollect that the 2,000 ton mill and mine expansion was projected to cost 180 million and would take 3 years to get into production. We will be fortunate if we can scrape through before we run through the 250 million. The current gross sales do not come close to covering the total costs of operating the company and continuing an exploration program. If it was me, I would terminate or severely cut back the exploration program until the company was generating a positive cash flow to support additional exploration.
Do your own calculations on the dilution of the new 19.4 million shares (15.3 million plus 4.1 million new shares) when you add another $250 million issue. Another 40 million shares at $6.00 per share for 60 million shares total (or another 60 million shares at $4.00 per share for 80 million shares total).....????? I think our only salvation is for the price of silver to go to $80-$100 per ounce to increase the in ground value of the company.
Maybe it makes sense to sell short at $12-$20 when you can plan replacing the 3 or 4 to 1 diluted shares for $6 or less. The shorts were selling shares when there was 15 million shares and will replace them when there is 60 million shares before the new mill starts up.
Another bone to pick, how come there is no news on the drilling results of the "massive sulfides"? Does the lack of news mean that the results are not as good as was desired?
Don't shoot the messenger, I have a significant investment here also and am not a happy camper.