Re: Goldcarp/ Seeker Debate
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 03, 2010 09:54AM
Creating value through Exploration and Development in the Sierra Madre of Mexico
Goldcarp,
Thanks for the explanation it truly helps. I too believe in taking profits and maintaining a trading position outside of one's core. By doing this over the past couple of years, I have been able to dramatically lower my cost basis for Kimber. Though, I have not received the return that I was initially anticipating, I am solidly in the black. I would propose that maybe all is not as it seems with Kimber, and please understand this is not some revelation given to me by someone in the know, it is merely conjecture. I too have been searching for tangibles to associate the price action or lack of action in this stock. Those things that I have come up with that are tangible are: Kimber has a resource (quite possibly much larger than what has been found thus far given the ore grades), this resource is economically mineable, they are located in what is rated as one of the most mining friendly jurisdictions in the world, they are well managed, Fidelity has taken a @6mil share position in which they paid well above the market price for 3 million to exercise warrants, etc... Of course, as you are aware, there are many others. So my conclusion has been, that something doesn't make sense. I was speaking with a friend about it the other day, how Kimber had seemed to be tethered to certain price points. The fact that you run a brokerage, you probably understand what I am talking about, and I would love to hear your take on it. It is almost as though the price was being managed, both on the way down and on the way back up. Again this is only conjecture from my observations. These observations, coupled with Kimber's very quiet nature, (in that I mean they are not out there beating the streets publicly marketing themselves, aside from the occasional press release), and all the aforementioned positives, has led me to believe that the Kimber game is being played at an institutional level. I am not even really sure what that exactly means, but have a hunch, that it will bode well for those of us who have bought a ticket for the ride. I really started thinking this way over a year ago, in consideration of Eric and Jim's involvement in this company. These are two men who know how to market and sell, and yet after great news, we are lucky to get a few paragraphs written in a most mundane tone. Based on Jim's prior proxy battle with the Kimber board, years ago, I know he is keenly interested in how this company is managed, and I am forced to assume that he must be okay with this 'fly below the radar' approach they are taking. I know neither Jim nor Eric are in this thing to lose money, or even in it to make just a little. They believe in this company. I have been invested in Kimber long enough to have looked at every line of every report, press release, etc., that I can lay my hands on, but often times the true story behind a company and where it is headed, can only be found by diligently trying to read between the lines. What makes sense, what doesn't and how can I logically, with what I do know, fill in the gaps? In time I may be proven to be wrong, and as time progresses I will continue to filter my assumptions with information that I do know.
The reason I believe the violence in Mexico is a non-issue for Kimber, is due to Kimber's location. Zeroing in on Kimber on Google Earth, and you will see that it is in the middle of a wasteland of rocky crags that appear to be nearly unihabitable. Drugs and it's money as well as the violence, go to areas with people, or in the case of Mexico it runs along a few corridors used as distribution paths into the US. That is not to say there haven't been a few anomalies where the violence has occurred elsewhere, just to say the overwhelming majority of this crime is being committed in a very finite area. Can all of the stories and the gruesome and graphic nature of the story writing cause trepidation for the casual investor when considering a company like Kimber? Absolutely. But I believe, in time, it will be clear that it is a non issue. Of course this is just my opinion.
Best regards,
Seeker