Missed this....published Feb 10th.

Precious Metals Equities - Q4/14 Preview Challenging Quarter Expected on the Back of Weak Metal Prices The Q4/14 earnings season begins this week with Kinross, Agnico-Eagle, and Yamana reporting. We expect Q4/14 to be a tough quarter for the precious metal producers. Gold price averaged $1,201/oz in Q4, down 6.4% q/q and the lowest quarterly average since Q2/10. Silver also fared poorly, averaging $16.50/oz, a decline of 16.3% q/q. Byproduct metal prices were also weaker, with copper, zinc, and lead declining 5.2%, 3.2%, and 8.2%, respectively. Operating costs are forecast to decline, but not enough to offset the weakness in gold price. We forecast that average cash costs will fall 2.8% q/q in Q4 to $690/oz; however, given the 6.4% drop in gold price, we expect margins to contract. Lower energy prices and a stronger U.S. dollar should provide some downward pressure on operating costs although we expect lower byproduct revenues to offset much of the savings. Gold equities outlook for 2015 In our view, after four tough years for the gold sector, the outlook has improved:  We forecast that all-in sustaining costs will decline to $1,032/oz in 2015, ~16% reduction relative to the 2012 peak of $1,223/oz.  Margin expansion: Based on our cost forecasts and a $1,300/oz gold price, we forecast that the average all-in margins will rise 19% in 2015, the first increase in annual margins since 2011. Gold has averaged ~$1,250/oz so far in Q1/15, an increase of ~4% relative to Q4/14.  Balance sheets are improving: With lower costs, dividend cuts, and significant reduction in capex, we forecast that the net debt for producers in our coverage universe peaked in 2014 and will decline going forward. We estimate that the average net debt/EBITDA should decline to 1.27x by 2016 from 1.91x in 2014.  Near-term production growth, but long-term growth challenges remain: After a relatively flat production over the past five years, we forecast that total gold production for producers in our coverage universe (~25% of global gold production) will rise ~10% by 2017/2018 as a number of in-flight projects are completed and ramp up. However, after 2018, we are forecasting that production will start declining as a number of older mines reach their end-of-life, grade profiles decline, and with the lack of new sizeable projects being launched. Our current estimates remain unchanged, with the exception of Newmont, IAMGOLD, and Timmins, which have been revised slightly for the Q4 operational updates provided since the publication of our 2015/2016 Precious Metals Preview on January 22. Our top picks among the gold producers are Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-N), Goldcorp Inc. (GG-N), B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T), SEMAFO (SMF-T), and Lake Shore Gold (LSG-T). We like Franco-Nevada (FNV-T) among the royalty companies and Continental Gold (CNL-T) among the developers.