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Message: EV-internal combustion price parity forecast for 2023 – report

 

IMHO, the „parity“ will not be achieved anytime soon, certainly not in 2023. From my, „Central European“ perspective, I see following obstacles:

 

  • Cost of (Lithium) batteries – at the moment and despite Lithium being 8 USD per kg, the batteries are still quite expensive. It would be great to have the solid state batteries, which may be cheaper and last longer.
  • Tax implications – BEV do not carry the tax burden, which is (at least in EU) associated with consumption of petrol (approx half of the price are taxes). Should BEV become more popular, the governments will not let drivers go tax free
  • BEV cannot sell without subsidies or artificial obstacles created by government for ICE, despite that BEV are still not on parity
  • Last point is lifetime – typical ICE car last approximately 16-20 years, which means that current batteries should replaced at least once, if not twice in that period. That makes the 2nd hand market of cars 8 years old + (which is usually still quite good car, my Espace has 12 years and looks great, well apart of some scratches) impossible. Very few are going to buy TSLA 8 years old with the prospect of further investment of 7 000 usd, leaving aside costs of spareparts.

 

So, any nowadays BEV will be appreciated over 8-12 years and then scrapped. That makes them not economical but also quite not ecological. Anyway, just my 2 cents here…

 

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