Re: Outcome of DFS
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 18, 2020 02:52PM
OK, Pavel... I will be foolish enough to wade into these waters. I believe you both have good points, as you always do, Pavel, with your circumspective abilities... however, John E. is even more circumspective in this particular case... doesn't mean he is totally right... but he definitely has the more pessimistic view of LAC's game plan at this point.
I happen to agree with you that there will be a boost in Share Price when LAC announces the DFS. The Share Price may very well climb to the $6 level you predict, but it should certainly reach $5.50 at least before the other shoe drops. I am more of an Investor than a Trader at the present time, although the reverse was true in the past. I do see the merit of what you suggest: Selling into the rise at a pre-selected trigger point. Just guessing, and that is all that it is, the $5.50 to $6.00 range sounds about right, unless the Thacker Pass DFS takes a more powerful rocket ride than I am expecting... in that event then, of course, you would want a higher Trigger Price for the Sale... maybe selling in 2 or 3 separate events such as 1/2, 1/2 or 1//3, 1/3, 1/3 depending on the current situation at that time and your experience and preference and your risk tolerance. The obvious stuff.
One thing you might do ahead of time if you are determined to sell into the expected price rise: Go back and take a look at previous Up Ticks with LAC.. at least 3 or 4 in your sample and determine exactly how many days after the Share Price peaked as to when it fell. Was it a couple of days, 3 days, 4 days.. a week. I am just going on memory here.. and that is not a very good source... but I suspect that the answer is an average of 3 to 4 days after the peak... not long. Take that information that you obtain and factor it into your decision re: your new Sell Trigger Point. JMO
Note: I am writing my reply before checking this mornings volume and Share Price numbers.
Anyway, I can't see any reason why fence sitters won't jump over the fence once the event that they are waiting on transpires... the presentation of the DFS...unless there is some definite negative connotation to that very DFS. I think John E. is persuaded that the rise in the Share Price will only be temporary and, on that point, I agree. Euphoria can only last so long until it gets old and wears off and in the world of investment the slightest little thing will extinguish euphoria quicker than an ice cream sandwich melts at the Equator. I think John is right on that point... unless there is something of a 1-2 punch in the equation whereby quickly ( define: quickly ??) after the announcement of a very positive DFS on Thacker Pass LAC makes a secondary announcement about how they have now obtained sufficient financing to carry through all the plans for building and production at Thacker Pass. That is the big fly in the ointment... however, a really good DFS announcement would be just the thing that a prospective large investor ( read: Deep Pockets ) would be waiting for before pulling the trigger on puting big bucks into financing LAC's Thacker Pass mining facility and processing facility. We also shouldn't forget the EIS situation as that applies to Thacker Pass.
As I have said before, the present tensions between the US and China pretty much rules out an investment in financing Thacker Pass from Ganfeng Lithium or from any other Chinese money source. When you look at the numbers for Chinese investments this year over seas ( outside China) they are way, way down compared to previous recent years. I don't have that information at my finger tips but I have previously posted here an article about it. I posted another article about the focus of China now in 2020 considering all the tension between the PRC and Taiwan, the Phillipines, the U.S., Japan and Viet Nam. China is concentrating on the New Silk Road Initiative and in pursuit of investing and gaining political and probable military initiatives in Africa and in South America... with some success. All of this takes the focus of the Chinese away from making further investments in North America, whether in a Canadian company or a U.S. company. The above is, of course, just my opinion. I believe if you search teh English editions of various Chinese newpapers and magazines you will possibly come to a similar conclusion.
John E.: " From a financial perspective, LAC searches for other investors instead of accumulating their own funds for immediate development and wants to make their money as a resource rights owner. "
John E. is lumping LAC in with all the other garden variety Junior Lithium companies when he makes that statement. I happen to disagree with him on that point. I believe LAC has a superior position in the lithium mining industry relative to at least 90% of the other Junior Mining companies. John E. is of course correct in that there are a ton of Lithium Juniors from the Boom Days for Lithium who staked a claim in Lithium Heaven with the idea only that "someday" one of the Big Boys would take pity on them and buy them out, merge with them or invest heavily in them in order that those who made a blindfold type lithium claim stake in the past would be able to turn that fotuitous move into a big profit with out ever having to do anything except sit back on their lazy butt until Deep Pockets took notice and made an offer. LAC did not do that... they were intent on developing Cauchari-Olaroz from the start, even though they obviously had help along the way from SQM and then from Ganfeng. I don't know if originally their plan was to only use Cauchari-Olaroz as a stepping stonel or not... but they have obviously had bigger plans than those Juniors who wanted to just sit their lazzy butt down and wait for Deep Pockets to feed them from the money tree.... why else would LAC go through all the planning at Thacker Pass... why else would there even be a Thacker Pass proposal and why else would LAC hire some of the top notch people that they now have as necessary for advancement of the involved Thacker Pass production and processing facility? I believe that LAC management is serious about being a huge player in the future Lithium mining world... a world class player. JMO John E. is entitled to his, which I believe is much more pessimistic re: the future of LAC.
John E. : "Personally, I have not yet sold into this most recent rise because it has been difficult accumulating the stock when it dips. The Longs have bragging rights here. $5.50 to $6? It’s gone since I think there will be a few of these swan dives until a Covid19 vaccine is available. It is Southern Hemisphere winter now and all of these countries are getting hit hard with the virus."
I think John makes a good point about there being more "swan dives"... possibly it does have something to do with the world situation viz a viz SARS-CoV-2. As for a vaccine being the cure... maybe, maybe not. Depends on the efficacy and safety of the vaccine and that is not ever a "sure thing".
My personal view is that a Therapeutic will probably arise out of the miasma of research prior to a vaccine being made practical and widely available and effective. I will say that all the recent attention to Dexamethasone is way out of proportion. It is a drug that has been available literally for decades and as a steroid it has limitations since steroid side effects can be very significant. It isn't going to be something that can be used in all patients, although most will probably be able to have it administered. It isn't, as I understand it, a prophylactic measure, meaning that it isn't something you take to prevent getting SARS-CoV-2, rather it is something administered after one is already diagnosed. Another problem is that there will be Dexamethasone scams just like we have had scams with other supposed treatments.. unscrupulous counterfiet drug trade and ilicit drug trade of the legitimate product, etc. All the fast buck artists gathering like flies to road kill. The usual pond scum.
There are other Therapeutics in existence and used for other purposes that may turn out to be more safe and more effective and that is where I am expecting the "answer" to come from... just a personal opinion. Of course, wherever the "answer" comes from in regard to SARS-CoV-2 that answer will have huge economic impact on the world economy in all respects, not just the limited microtomed slice we look at daily here: LAC.
Pavel: "Follow up question: Anyone here who sees into the LAC future processing factory bit more than I do? If the above is correct, then my own LAC investment thesis is collapsing as I was not accumulating a mining company but an chemical company"
I think you can anticipate my opinion on that question, Pavel. I am convinced that the answer lies in the difference between LAC management vs "The JV Team", those Junior lithium mining entrepreneurs whose only ambition was to get in quick and stake a claim on a possible lithium producing area and sit back on their rump until someone with Deep Pockets came to save their rear ends. They never intended to develop on their own their claims in the first place. I see the history of the LAC management as one who has worked tirelessly for many years to make the most of their claims in order, as it has eventually turned out, to concentrate on their now "Big Picture" situation at Thacker Pass. I haven't always shared a positive view of the way they handled things at Cauchari-Olaroz because I would have liked to see them maintain at least 51% of Cauchari-Olaroz, but as things have progressed I can now see that management had the correct view... the stepping stone view with the real prize at Thacker Pass.
The Thacker Pass investment is what is going to allow you, me and John E. to get a good ROI someday to the point of being able to leave something of value to the grand kids OR.... better yet.... drum roll..... wait for it.... blow the whole thing on whatever is in your heart's desire and let the grand kids fend for themselves.
Just kidding, grand kid. ( Maybe not ) Bill