Free
Message: Re: DFS
DFS
1
Oct 01, 2020 11:13PM
1
Oct 02, 2020 12:08AM
1
Cal
Oct 02, 2020 08:17AM
2
Oct 02, 2020 11:14AM

Oct 02, 2020 11:17AM
1
Cal
Oct 04, 2020 08:06AM
3
Oct 05, 2020 06:52PM

WB DT, would you mind to share some parameters from your valuation model? My “quick and dirty” calculation, based on NPV At the moment, we have the C-O DFS, which I believe quotes $1,3 bill. NPV and the Thacker Pass PFS, suggesting NPD of $2,6 bill. C-O belong only from 45% to LAC and I am allowing only 75% of that, therefore approximately $438 mill. T-P on the other hand is 100% LAC but they either going to sell half to someone, or issue about 45 mill. of new shares. I am “selling” half of the mine in my calculation and deduct 50% of the value of the mine for not being constructed yet, resulting in $650 mill. 

Based on this, and taking into consideration 91 mil shares I arrive at value of about $11/share. The catch here is, that both valuations expect Li2CO3 to be at $12/kg, while the reality is below $7/kg.

Valuation exercise, based on some hypothetical P&L will give me EBITA of about $2 per share, assuming full production of both mines. Livent, as a  benchmark has P/E ratio of  105, so realizing that the market is completely out of its mind and they all smoke stuff there they should not, the share price of LAC could easily be $100-200, depending how much one deducts for the minor fact, that this company is still far, far away from any production. Do I agree with this outcome? Of course I do not, but the market just wants to execute my call options this week and sees the future so bright, that nobody will resist. Lithium is hot and valuation does not matter anymore, till of course does. Either way, I am really curious to see your valuation model if of course possible.

1
Cal
Oct 06, 2020 08:03AM
Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply