posted on
Oct 06, 2020 08:03AM
Message: Timeline.
WB-DT ,thanks you for your kind words, thou there are few people on this board who are much more knowledgeable then I.
As you know Mr. Market always looks forward at the company evaluation and for last couple years LAC was valued as junior mining company, mining rights and reserves were taking in consideration , from that SP was assumed appropriate.
Time line. Not going back with all those statistics - $4 a share was a price for some time, then after Morgan Stanley’s hit article talking about LI oversupply SP took a dive , followed by black swan event (Covid -19) and SP was at $3 just 6 moth ago.
As company started to approach production it was considered normal for SP to move up to $6 range about four month ago.
Sudden talk about battery production attracted new buyers, followed by “Rumor Day” and new articles by analysts describing luck of Lithium supply in a future – and here we are …. I agree with Pavel’s numbers $18-$20 but that range should happen next year with Argentina production “on” and T-P just few years away.
Today with no DFS published and company remain quiet, my conservative estimate remains in $8-$10 range. Higher then that and SP is passed speculation , we are in euphoria state.
Am I enjoying the run – of cause I do , but like Okiedo noticed it would be nice to meet some goalposts . Will SP be in $20-30 range ? Yes it will but not next year, two years from now when T-P is online. At least that how it suppose to work.
I still think that pullback is possible to $10- $11 area. In mean time …. All ahead.
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