Too much noise out there on LAC right now.  Listed below are what I believe to be the facts on LAC’s approval/timeline process for Thacker Pass (TP).  If you are new to LAC, the approval and success of TP is all that matters to LAC for the most part.  LAC’s C-O project (Argentina - 49% ownership) is incredible for sure and I am 100% confident it will go live in 2021.  If the project is delayed, LAC will just store the evaporated brine by-product in already completed warehouses and re-fill their 12 SQ KM of ponds so we can all make that much more money in 2022 vs. 2021 (this project has zero long term execution risk IMO).  With all those positives about the LAC C-O project, I believe that South America Brine and Australia Spodumene are old school lithium (see LTHM, SQM & OROCF) but clay-based Lithium extraction (especially in North America) is the future for sure (salt anyone?).  I definitely look forward to the LAC C-O project coming online to help fund the TP build out in some way (no stock dilution) but the resource size of TP is a massive game changer for LAC, the Li industry and our ability to wean off of foreign Li dependence in the future (Google “Oil prices/shortage in the 70’s and 90’s”)  

Until tonight, I admittedly did not know much about the BLM/EIS approval process.  Please correct me if you know something different than my comments below.  If you do correct me, please be more specific than a dumb picture, a lame one line comment or a Boom Sauce (great MA beer) reference from my favorite #1 LAC cheerleader:

• LAC started their EIS notification process with the BLM on 2/5/20.  This filing started the clock on a newly mandated 12-month approval process

• This 12-month approval process cannot be dragged on unless there are material concerns and/or public comments with the LAC draft EIS submission

• The LAC submitted draft EIS was recorded into the BLM Federal Register on 7/29/20

• This started the 45-day public comment period which ended on 9/14/20

• Several of us listened into the 2 days of public comments and I did not personally hear anything material IMO

• I cannot find anything in writing that mandates a required time period between the end of the 45-day public comment period (9/14) and the release of the final EIS (has to happen prior to 1/5/21 per the 12-month mandate).  Please let me know if anyone can find this?

• If the draft EIS is sufficient (it will be, LAC spent 10 years & $100M to create it) and the public comments received in August were not material (see my opinion above), an updated final EIS will not be required

• If an updated final EIS is not required (as expected), the BLM can just publish a summary cover letter of the public feedback to the Federal Register with the original draft EIS

• Once the final EIS and/or summary cover letter feedback is published, there is still a 30-day required “approval process” before the Final Record of Decision is issued by the BLM on or before 2/5/21

• By my calculation (as of 10/14) I have no clue when the BLM will issue their Final Record of Decision.  Unless a new EIS is required based on public feedback, I am 100% certain this approval will come sometime between 11/14 and 2/5/21

• The 30-day clock will start once the final EIS is published (we will know final targeted approval date for sure sometime between 11/14 and 1/5/21)

• LAC is also confirmed and on record as saying that they plan to release their DFS in Q4 2020

• For the record I am 100% a long-term LAC investor.  Forget the DFS/BLM approval process for a second.  The next big bounce for LAC will come when the forecasted rise in lithium prices materializes over the next 4-18 months

• When (not if) that happens, LAC will be go live with 2 massive projects at the perfect time

• After that, the next big bounce for LAC will be their migration from a mining company to a specialty chemical company (What do you want today Mr./Mrs. car/battery manufacturer company (VM, Samsung, Tesla, GM, etc.)?……..Hydroxide or Carbonate?)

• The next big bounce for LAC will be their migration from a specialty chemical company to a battery manufacturer (this is all in the EIS with battery factory approvals requested)

• The next big bounce for LAC will be when they migrate from a normal Li batter manufacturer to a next-gen All-Solid-State battery manufacturer with help from someone like Solid State or QuanumScape

There is always risk in investing for sure, but in 20+ years of passive investing I have never seen a small cap stock like LAC (only $1B market cap) with such an obvious massive growth opportunity in front of them.  I don’t go back to the WL days like some but LAC is less than 6 months out from being partially realized for their potential and only 2+ years out from being fully realized.  Go luck on either side of the trade.  Go Lac!! 

WB