Thank you to everyone for quite interesting debate. To "wrap it up" on my side and to add few comments on the Annual Report, it seems to me, we still live on quite high doses of hoppium:
- Thacker Pass does not have green light to "disturb the land" on site
- The separation and purification process probably works in Reno on a "production line", constructed from an array of laboratory beakers, filtration papers and burners, but nobody yet has scaled this operation up to receive 60k tons of an output.
- That is supported by following statement “…Engaged third-party vendors to engineer and design …evaporator and crystallizer...”. Here I sense sizeable amount of uncertainty and my translation to plain English is : “Well, we had talked to few companies about our process and needed equipment, but they all thougt, that we are complete whackers and have turned us down. But hey, do not worry, we still have few phone calls to make.”
Further points, taken from scanning the annual report:
- Eventually, C-O will start production. But the relative progress, reported via their presentations is quite slow.
- Taking that into consideration, it is very unlikely, we will see first ton earlier than October-December next year. LAC says, that construction is on plan, but nobody knows, what their plans are, it can be whatever.
- They got about 2 months to work outside, unless they got something to finish inside those building, not even the locals would work trough the winter (6 months zero progress).
- LAC can swim in concetrated brine, thanks to repeated delays, the completed ponds are full.
- Thacker Pass development scares the siht out of me.
- LAC has contract with diggers and probably a pipeline of those interested in the output. Minor issues: nobody knows how to process million tons of a clay into battery grade Lithium
- No reference, when the project may start (used to 2025 if I remember correctly).
- Considering growing price of agricultural products, management should consider use that land to grow cows and remote areas convert into a national park.
Take away:
- Never leave LAC report for weekend reading. Time is money and in case of LAC, the delay was quite expensive. The writing was on the wall.
- Robinhooders and other FOMO investors were reduced to ashes over past 2 weeks (you can read their testimonials on TOB) , those being short have made their money and should be closing positions
- My sophisticated evaluation model indicates fair price of $13/share (that does not yet include costs associated with building the farm and the welcome center), hence selling puts around $10 (6% on May strike) may either generate reasonable premium or provide reload position for next FOMO sprint.
- Unless my understanding of the report was horribly wrong, nothing will happen till the end of summer. Lithium price will move higher, so LAC share price should gradually drift toward $19, supported by reincarnated Robinhooders
- Next Cauchari-Olaroz project delay announced in September.
Have a nice Sunday :-). And yes, I am still disapointed.