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Message: Re: Very curious about how members here feel about Jerry's post over on TOB

Here’s my take for what it’s worth.

As many here know the paradigm shift from ICE to EV started just a few years ago and mostly due to Elon Musk’s vision of Tesla proving the viability of the EV which was accelerated thru climate change fears/government policies worldwide. At one point TSLA thru mostly Panasonic partnership in TRI double the lithium battery production in the world. So it stands to make sense TSLA would be a driving force in the lithium market looking back. I think this may be changing despite TSLA doing a much better job securing future batteries and battery material than other OEMs. With 2 new plants just about online each with battery production within (eventually) I think they will still be a huge piece of the EV pie moving forward. I also believe the Megapack/Powerpack, Powerwalls  will be on par with the automotive lithium demand for TSLA. TSLA is building a factory to build parts for their own battery production lines because they are innovating vertically once again. TSLA is volatile because so many people have disdain for EVs in general and/or Musk. It’s not a stretch to see how this volatility will affect the lithium market as a whole and LAC to the same.

 

I don’t think the charts of TSLA and LAC looking similar is a sign of anything nefarious nor do I think there are any parallels that may help with future predictions of where LAC is going. I don’t have a strong belief in charts as I feel they are looking to the past to help predict the future. So with this said Cal obviously feels differently. But as Cal correctly noted and I’ll expand on as well - The tools the Morgan Stanley’s in the world use are very sophisticated and very quick. These institutions move the markets but the retail investors are something new with all these trading platforms and all that money the US government has been giving away. We are going into a new investing phase in my opinion. The retail investors will be giving way to the institutional investors, more so. This will not be back for LAC.

 

If I may take a minute to share my thoughts as some of us here are feeling a bit down especially after that crazy run. This may be easier for some people to swallow with their financial standing and age but I think it’s really important to remind ourselves as to why we are invested in LAC.  Nothing has changed other than the day to day concerns with permits and lawsuits and this has all been good. LAC is not producing, they are not making money and they will not be profitable for some time to come. We are here because we all have this expectation that when they are producing on all cylinders and making money we think the share price based on some fictitious multiple will be well north of here. Some say $50 some say $100.  What’s happening now with the price heading to $25 doesn’t change our expectations of $50 -$100.

Concentrate on the NUMBER of shares and NOT the value of your account. Retail investors (not exclusive) make errors when decisions are based on emotional fears. You don’t have to buy at the bottom and you don’t have to sell at the top and remind yourself the 10% return a year is really good!

 

This week I bought in at $30, $29, $28.50 and sold some $30 and $27.5 Jan puts (12-7% return in 5 weeks). I don’t know but I imagine we might see $25 before the year’s end. I’m very confident these positions will be viewed very well in 12 months from now so I’m not concerned with the stock going to $20. I will not feel this way after LAC matures into a major lithium supplier.

 

I hope this helps some. Buy on a low. $40 has been proven. Go LAC!

 

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