Start of production at Thacker Pass
posted on
Jan 15, 2022 10:07AM
I wanted to repeat here a post I made on TOB in reaction to someone anticipating production to start at TP a bit too early, IMHO.
JE has repeatedly said that construction takes "about" 2 years. Even with a favorable ruling in late Feb/early March, the earliest we'd see construction start at TP is say June, so completion of construction summer 2024 and about a 4-6 month commissioning phase so late Q4 2024 at the earliest for meaningful product to be leaving TP.
Now let's reflect on the fact that the minor permit to do small excavation work that was initially anticipated summer 2021 has just now been cleared after 6 months of appeals by the American Indian tribes. It would be naive not to expect similar appeals and delays after Judge Du's ruling. So let's add another 6 months to start of meaningful production and you're getting into Q2 2025. If the appeal delays go into winter 2022 then construction might not start until spring 2023.
So my timeline for completion of construction at TP is best case summer 2024, and worst case spring of 2025, with meaningful production after commissioning coming Q4 2022-Q3 2025. I'm personally expecting late Q1 2025 for meaningful production.
I'm long so these possible delays don't really matter, and there will be lots of action at Couchari and with the Millennial and Arena projects to keep the SP up.