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Message: Re: WTH?
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Cal
Sep 27, 2023 04:23PM
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Sep 27, 2023 05:29PM

Sep 27, 2023 05:44PM

Sep 27, 2023 06:03PM
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Cal
Sep 27, 2023 07:51PM
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Sep 28, 2023 02:03AM
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Sep 28, 2023 11:41AM

Sep 28, 2023 12:55PM

Cal
Sep 28, 2023 03:09PM

HC, I much appreciate your observations.  As to that portion of the fixed ESS market that deals with domestic residential Energy Storage I believe you made some excellent points.  Tesla has already entered that segment some time ago with their 13 1/2 kWh usable, 7 kW peak, 5 kW continuous Powerwall.  Their Powerwall can be used by a home owner as a single unit or it can be linked together with more than one unit.

The original Powerwall from Tesla was introduced in 2015 and for the last few years there has been the Powerwall 2 and the Powerwalll 2+, both with NMC chemistry.  The difference between the Powerwall 2 and the Powerwalll 2+ is that the second one is heavier and has an integrated invertor within the syistem as opposed to the Powerwall that requires an additional external invertor.

According to Wikipedia and about the original Powerwall from 2015: "The device was initially announced to have power output of 2 kilowatt (kW) continuous and 3.3 kW peak, but CEO Elon Musk said at the June 2015 Tesla shareholders meeting that this would be more than doubled to 5 kW steady with 7 kW peak, with no increase in price."  The 5 kW "steady" mentioned in the Wikipedia article is, I believe, the continuous power rating.  

The speculation about the brand new Powerwall 3, to become available to consumers in 2024, includes the presumption that it has a Lithium Iron Phosphate chemistry.

  Some info from a link about the Powerwall 2 and the Powerwall 2+ :

Tesla Powerwall Review and Cost (2023) (marketwatch.com)

 

Compared to the info about the Powerwall 3 :

Tesla Powerwall 3 specs

Much like the previous Powerwall batteries, the Powerwall 3 has an energy capacity of 13.5kWh. You can scale up the capacity by up to 40.5kWh more per unit. 

It's twice as powerful as previous Powerwall batteries too, with a continuous power output rating of 11.5kW. 

The battery also comes with a 10-year warranty and can't be combined with other Powerwall models. The Tesla Powerwall 3 is expected to launch sometime in 2024.

From what I have read about the Powerwall 3 the home owner could use up to 3 of these ESU at his or her home.  Quite interesting is the fact that the Powerwall 3 is touted to be "flood resistant" up to a level of 2 feet of water.  The Powerwall 3 unit is lighter in weight than the Powerwall 2+. 

More info on the Powerwall 3:

Tesla Officially Introduces Powerwall 3 (msn.com)

 

The Tesla Powerwall 3 should come into availability in 2024, but may not be available in all parts of the country for a while.  Below is a link to a brochure put out as sort of a written "Infomercial" by one company back on 1 March 2023 that answers a number of questions about the Powerwall 2 and the Powerwall 2+, written before the latest updated information about the new Powerwall 3:

The Top 21 Tesla Powerwall Questions Answered - Freedom Solar (freedomsolarpower.com)

So, you can readily see that NMC lithium ion batteries (Powerwall 2 and Powerwall 2+) and lithium iron phosphate (probably in the Powerwall 3) are either available or soon will be available for home owners through Tesla.  Tesla is not the only company making ESU, Energy Storage Units, for home use by home owners and that incorporate lithium ion batteries.

I suspect that for that portion of the ESU segment storing electrical energy on smaller scale fixed applications, primarily home ESU applications, that lithium ion batteries will have a long application for many years in the future.

My previous post should have been more specific in regards to those fixed, non mobile, non portable application segments of BESS that for the most part are and will be commercial applications for business, manufacturing and mining... the "Big Boys". 

For those applications I stand by my prediction that the current use of lithium ion batteries to provide power storage in the form of batteries, that those applications will turn away from lithium ion batteries of all varieties of lithium chemistries gradually and increasingly to such things as Vanadium Flow batteries.  These will be very heavy batteries that are not amenable to easy transport. On the other hand, ESU such as the Tesla Powerwall 2, 2+ and 3 are not exactly light weights either that you can slip into the trunk of your car and take to power your needs for a week end camp out at the closest national park.  

Thanks, again, HC for your observations.  I believe the development of industrial size ESU is a very interesting and exciting subject, especially as it relates to such things as remote locations far from the grid and to manufacturing and mining, but when the topic of ESU relates to my investment and your investment in LAC, then portability and initial financial investment considerations favor the continued need for lithiuim ion batteries for these ESU applications and that favorability will, thankfully, continue to feed the ongoing growing demand for lithium in order to provide the necessary lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide to meet those needs. 

I don't see that demand decreasing for some time in the future in spite of the fact that there are inumerable lithium mining proposals on the drawing board.  As every LAC long term investor knows via the school of hard knocks:  it takes a long, long time to go from proposing a lithium mine to reach the actual production of lithium carbonate and/or lithium hydroxide for commercial use from that proposed mine..... especially if that mine is in the U.S.!!! 

That has been a painfully slow lesson to learn and the lesson isn't over since 2026 is only a prognostication of a production date by LAC.  Experience has taught every long term LAC investor that prognosticated dates of completion by LAC management seem to always have marked "flexibility" when the rubber meets the road and the goal post mysteriously gets moved further and further away from the original "Date of completion" offered by the company.  Amazing how that happens over and over again.  I wouldn't place any bet that the company will meet its proffered 2026 date for completion of Thacker Pass anymore than I would bet that the Chicago Bears will win the Super Bowl in 2024 or that Senator Bob Menedez will be elected President of the United States in November of 2024.  

Just sayin'

Onward through the FOG.......... and through the pathetically low Share Price currently for LAC

 

Okiedo

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Sep 28, 2023 05:48PM
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