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Message: Re: It's lonely in here on this message board

Hi, John.  As you can probably tell I posted "something" just to be sure that this message board didn't go completely silent.  It is a sad state of affairs when you have to post trivial comments like mine about a bad situation everyone already knows about.  The truth is that there just isn't much to say here until a significant improvement occurs in the lithium demand, something we all know.

Pavel checks this site twice a week.  I wish I had something to write about that would justify those check ins by Pavel.  Writing about the continued down slope of the cost of lithium doesn't exactly inspire anyone to read such a post.

As for POET, yes, of course I am excited that POET seems to be at an inflection point, but that isn't guaranteed.  Hope is something that is always there, whether justified or not, but by itself it has no bearing on the reality of whether a company will succeed when others fail.  There has to be solid moves by the company in product development and in market demand in order to achieve movement of the needle of share price upward.  POET seems to qualify on both counts at the present while LAC and LAAC remain presently failing on both counts.

I will try to find something to post here a couple of times per month or so, just to confirm I am still vertical.  It is always a kick to hear from you and from Pavel, even if we can't gloat about the success of LAC and LAAC since the facts don't support it right now.

One subject that has a bearing on the future of both LAC and LAAC will remain relevant and that is the progress of EVs in the world market place.  

Some positive outlooks are still in print about the future of EVs.  A few links below will illustrate that positivity.  My personal view is that many of the articles and pontifications in the past were overly optimistic regarding the rate of transition to electric vehicles and that transition is still continuing, but at a more realistic rate.  Total transition to EVs will never take place and those who promoted total transition were dead wrong.  That isn't such a bad thing, because there is no reason that ICE and EVs can't each share the market.  For those of us invested in lithium mining, of course I "hope" to see a progression in the per cent of total vehicles becoming EVs, over time.  All of us with an interest and investment in lithium mining are presently in the midst of a "reality check", and maybe that is a good thing.  Lithium isn't dead.  Maybe it is something like a mid life crisis, even though lithium is not exactly "mid life".

The first link is a pretty comprehensive view of the EV market world wide:

Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

 

"Strong electric car sales in the first quarter of 2024 surpass the annual total from just four years ago

Electric car sales remained strong in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing those of the same period in 2023 by around 25% to reach more than 3 million. This growth rate was similar to the increase observed for the same period in 2023 compared to 2022. The majority of the additional sales came from China, which sold about half a million more electric cars than over the same period in 2023. In relative terms, the most substantial growth was observed outside of the major EV markets, where sales increased by over 50%, suggesting that the transition to electromobility is picking up in an increasing number of countries worldwide."

 

"Since 2021, first-quarter electric car sales have typically accounted for 15-20% of the total global annual sales. Based on this observed trend, coupled with policy momentum and the seasonality that EV sales typically experience, we estimate that electric car sales could reach around 17 million in 2024. This indicates robust growth for a maturing market, with 2024 sales to surpass those of 2023 by more than 20% and EVs to reach a share in total car sales of more than one-fifth."

 

 

The Rise of Electric Vehicles: Unveiling the Reasons Behind Record Highs | Nasdaq

 

I won't pretend to summarize the McKinsey report, but at least take a look at the chart for lithium battery demand through 2030 in this report:

A year of electric vehicle and mobility trends | McKinsey

 

 

OK, that's it for now.  I won't be posting very often, so if you and Pavel have anything to add then please feel free to do it!

 

Okiedo

 

 

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