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Message: Re: Analyze Kruk

Aug 09, 2012 02:34PM

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Aug 14, 2012 12:10AM

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Aug 14, 2012 09:15AM

I feel that big pharma is not willing to make risky bets on Afrezza given the failure of Exubra. It is not something I understand but it is what it is. The potential fallout of betting on Afrezza for a CEO would be much larger compared to other unknown drugs.

In addition, Al being a tough negotiator, does not want to sell out the company for a large upfront payment. This decreases the incentive for big pharmas as well.

I think the big pharma buyouts have two models: one is to buy the rights of a drug at early stage of development when it seems the potential of the drug and is willing to shoulder the risks considering the future stream of income.

Two is to buy the whole company with drugs of proven success or at least approval. This can reduce the regulatory risk and marketing risk while the potential payout is lower.

So Al certainly won't follow the first model and would tend to go to the second model. However, the current financial situation forces him to consider a partner before the company is ready to be sold. Maybe Al is asking for a large upfront payment but not giving away too much of the percentage of Afrezza's rights. This is very tough for big pharmas to take, which explains the lack of interests.

What Al and the rest of the management are expecting may be just to wait for the interim results of the trial and then prove to the big pharms that the risks of betting on Afrezza is now lower and justify the price tag, etc.

Al may have some funding from his own fortune ready as a stop-gap source of financing if there is no other alternative after the trial results of phase I patients come out.


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