Re: Perfect Storm
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 10, 2012 02:20PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Hey, Stizzer,
Let me describe what I did today; I had to play some defense, but this could be an offensive play for others.
Sometime in late 2011, I sold a bunch of Jan 2013 2.50 strike puts and got over a buck for them. Now, I do think the stock could well be below $2.50 by January, so I rolled them to January 2014 $1.50 puts - meaning I bought back my first position for about .53 per share, and I sold the new position for about .42 per share. So, cash flow wise, I was out .11, but I did have a gain on that initial position.
For those of you who have no January 2013 puts to consider, look at the benefit of selling the Jan 2014 $1.50 put. You receive today, .42 or so for each share, so the most you can lose is about $1.08, and that is if MNKD goes under by January 20, 2014. The downside is, you do have to put up cash (or use available margin from your marginal holdings) and most of the houses require you to put up dollar for dollar on this transaction.
So, let's say you sold 100 put contracts, January $1.50's - you would have to put up $15,000 (you might get better terms from some houses, but the above would be the most you'd have to put up, it's the whole darn amount, after all). So, 100 contracts represents 10,000 shares ($1.50 x 10,000 is your $15,000) and the day you do the transaction, your account is credited with 10,000 x .41 (assuming you can get that) and that's $4,100, so, really, you're putting up $10,900 of your old cash and $4,100 of the cash you just generated by this trade. That's a lot better than CD rates!! There is no upside to the trade, you've made the most money you can make on the trade on the day you sold, which today would be about $4,100.
If MNKD is below $1.50, you may get "put" but most likely that won't happen till January 2014. And so you now buy 10,000 MNKD at $1.50, which seems like a bargain now (but trust me, won't see like that if it does get put to you!!). You won't have the upside if the stock goes up, but is it likely to soar or even climb much by Jan 2014? Not if past performance is any guide. And, if the stock were to climb, you could buy out of your position early for a nice profit.
Not saying the above is an entire strategy to play MNKD, just one thing to consider.