Re: Updated Share Price Model
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 16, 2013 08:30PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Here is my assessment of the expected number of shares based on what we already know and taking into account the entire capital structure of the company as of November 2012
We are currently up to 285,767,463 shares outstanding. 199,767,463 previously issued plus 86,000,000 issued on 10/23/2012. The issuance on 10/23/2012 was over subscribed at 46 million to the public, not 40 million.
I would also add the 3,002,778 shares issuable in connection with the 7/23/12 securities action settlement, but not the additional 1,000,000 shares if the share price is below $1 at settlement.
I think it would be safe to add the shares from the exercise of all of the warrants; an additional 86,062,500 shares. If the company is successful, all warrants will get exercised. If the share price is not high enough for the October 30, 2013 warrants to get exercised at $2.60, then the company will have to go to the capital markets for financing and the terms will surely be worse than the exercise would provide.
There were 3,782,122 unsettled restricted shares which will likely settle if the company is successful.
There are also 18,662,846 company options with an average strike of $3.47. Since I don't know the breakdown of all the strikes, it is hard to know how many will get exercised, but for safety, I would assume that they all get exercised
The 8/15/2015 convertible debt has a conversion price of $6.80, so if the company is successful, then by 2015 the share price should be above $6.8, so I assume conversion will happen.
I would not count the 12/15/2013 convertibles since the conversion price is so high, nor would I count the restricted shares that are available but not yet granted.
From | Shares | Running Total |
Outstanding | 285,767,463 | 285,767,463 |
Other: from securities action | 3,002,778 | 288,770,241 |
Warrants | 86,062,500 | 374,832,741 |
Restricted Stock | 3,782,122 | 378,614,863 |
Company Options | 18,662,846 | 397,277,709 |
8/15/2015 Convertible Debt | 14,708,590 | 411,986,299 |
So, by my count, we are up to about 412 million shares. Here are the details:
Convertible Debt
Maturity Date
Principal
Coupon
Conversion Price
Total Shares if Converted
12/15/2013
115,000,000
3.75%
22.47
5,117,523
Up to 1,484,064 additional shares issuable make-whole premium
8/15/2015
100,000,000
5.75%
6.80
14,708,590
Up to 2,041820 additional shares issuable make-whole premium
Total
215,000,000
19,826,113
Mann Group LOC
Maturity Date
Principal Owed
Unused Principal
Total Credit Line
As of Date
7/1/2013
?????
120,000,000
?????
9/30/2012
Warrants
Expiration Date
Quantity
Strike Price
Shares Per Warrant
Total Shares if Exercised
Total Proceeds if Exercised
2/8/2016
35,937,500
2.40
0.60
21,562,500
51,750,000
10/30/2013
46,000,000
2.60
0.75
34,500,000
89,700,000
10/30/2013
40,000,000
2.60
0.75
30,000,000
78,000,000
Total
121,937,500
86,062,500
219,450,000
Shares Outstanding
Date
Shares
Issue Price
Proceeds
As of 9/30/2012
199,767,463
10/23/2012
46,000,000
2.00
92,000,000
10/23/2012
40,000,000
2.69
107,400,000
Total
285,767,463
Stock Options
Weighted Average Strike Price
Total Shares if Exercised
Total Proceeds if Exercised
As of Oct 2012
3.47
18,662,846
64,760,076
Restricted Stock Units
Total Shares upon settlement
As of Oct 2012
3,782,122
Other Stock
Date
Shares
As of Oct 2012
9,338,040
shares available for future grant under 2004 equity incentive paln and option plan
As of Oct 2012
3,002,778
shares issuable in connection with 7/23/12 securities action settlement
As of Oct 2012
1,000,000
shares issuable in connection with 7/23/12 securities action settlement if share pr <1.00 at settlement
Total
13,340,818
.