Agoracom: Small Cap Investment - Mannkind - Guestimating the country looking for 200M worth of Afrezza

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Other Ottawa Guy (OOG)

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Guestimating the country looking for 200M worth of Afrezza

posted on May 28, 2013 10:44PM

Lets work from the assumption that the percentage of poulation that is type 1&2 diabetic is not disimilar between differing nations.We will use the US population as our comparison population.

US Population (Pop) 300M

US Diabetic Population Type 1 (dPop1) 3M = 1%(dPop1%)

US Diabetic Population Type 2 (dPop2) 27M = 9%(dPop2%)

US Diabetic Population (dPop12) 30M = 10%(dPop12%)

Size of Order (SO) 200M

Annual Cost per Treatment (ACT) =2000

Formula:

(SO/ACT) * 1/(Pop/dPop) = OCP

(200,000,000 / 2000) = 100,000 * 1/0.1 = 1,000,000 (Other Country Population) dPop12

(200,000,000 / 2000) = 100,000 * 1/0.01 = 10,000,000 (Other Country Population) dPop1

Compare your number against following table to determine your guestimate of which conntry it was form the table below from the people at:

http://www.rightdiagnosis.com/d/diab1/stats-country.htm

1 Yr Supply Type 1
2 Yrs Supply Type 1
3+ Yrs Supply Type 1
Previously Suggested

Country/Region	Extrapolated Prevalence of Type 1	Population Estimated Used	Notes
Monaco	400	32,270
Liechtenstein	410	33,436
Belize	3410	272,945
Iceland	3670	293,966
Bosnia and Herzegovina	5090	407,608
Macau s.a.r.	5560	445,286
Luxembourg	5780	462,690
East Timor	12,740	1,019,252
Swaziland	14,610	1,169,241
Czech Republic	15,570	10,246,178
Gaza strip	16,560	1,324,991
Estonia	16,770	1,341,664
Botswana	20,490	1,639,231
Slovenia	25,140	201,147
Macedonia	25,500	2,040,085
Bhutan	27,310	2,185,569
Kuwait	28,210	2,257,549
Latvia	28,820	2,306,306
West Bank	28,890	2,311,204
United Arab Emirates	31,540	2,523,915
Mongolia	34,390	2,751,314
Wales	36,470	2,918,000
Congo Brazzaville	37,470	2,998,040
Liberia	42,380	3,390,635
Albania	44,310	3,544,808
Lithuania	45,090	3,607,899
Zimbabwe	45,890	12,671,860
Central African Republic	46,780	3,742,482
Lebanon	47,210	3,777,218
Puerto Rico	48,720	3,897,960
Ireland	49,610	3,969,558
New Zealand	49,920	3,993,817
Singapore	54,420	4,353,893
Croatia	56,210	4,496,869
Georgia	58,670	4,693,892
Finland	65,180	5,214,512
Nicaragua	66,990	5,359,759
Denmark	67,660	5,413,392
Papua New Guinea	67,750	5,420,280
Slovakia	67,790	5,423,567
Jordan	70,140	5,611,202
Libya	70,390	5,631,585
Sierra leone	73,540	5,883,889
Laos	75,850	6,068,117
Paraguay	77,390	6,191,368
Israel	77,480	6,199,008
Hong Kong s.a.r.	85,680	6,855,125
Tajikistan	87,640	701,156
Switzerland	93,130	7,450,867
Bulgaria	93,970	7,517,973
Azerbaijan	98,350	7,868,385
Austria	102,180	8,174,762
Rwanda	102,980	8,238,673
Somalia	103,800	8,304,601
Sweden	112,330	8,986,400
Chad	119,230	9,538,544
Hungary	125,400	10,032,375
Belarus	128,880	10,310,520
Belgium	129,350	10,348,276
Portugal	131,550	10,524,145
Greece	133,090	10,647,529
Serbia and Montenegro	135,320	10,825,900
Senegal	135,650	10,852,147
Angola	137,230	10,978,552
Zambia	137,820	11,025,690
Niger	142,000	11,360,538
Guatemala	178,500	14,280,596
Kazakhstan	189,290	15,143,704
Chile	197,790	15,823,957
Netherlands (Holland)	203,970	16,318,199
Nigeria	221,870	125,750,356
Syria	225,210	18,016,874
Sri Lanka	248,810	19,905,165
Australia	248,910	19,913,144
Yemen	250,310	20,024,867
Ghana	259,460	20,757,032
Romania	279,440	22,355,551
North Korea	283,710	22,697,553
Taiwan	284,370	22,749,838
Malaysia	294,030	23,522,482
Venezuela	312,710	25,017,387
Iraq	317,180	25,374,691
Saudi Arabia	322,440	25,795,938
Uganda	329,870	26,390,258
Uzbekistan	330,130	26,410,416
Peru	344,300	27,544,305
Afghanistan	356,420	28,513,677
Canada	406,340	32,507,874
Kenya	412,270	32,982,109
Tanzania	450,880	36,070,799
Poland	482,820	38,626,349
Sudan	489,350	39,148,162
Spain	503,500	40,280,780
Colombia	528,880	42,310,775
South Africa	555,600	44,448,470
Ukraine	596,650	47,732,079
South Korea	602,920	48,233,760
Italy	725,710	58,057,477
Congo kinshasa	728,960	58,317,030
Britain (United Kingdom)	753,380	6,027,071	for UK2
United Kingdom	753,380	60,270,708
France	755,300	60,424,213
Thailand	810,810	64,865,523
Iran	843,790	67,503,205
Turkey	861,170	68,893,918
Ethiopia	891,700	71,336,571
Egypt	951,460	76,117,421
Germany	1,030,300	82,424,609
Vietnam	1,033,280	82,662,800
Philippines	1,078,020	86,241,697
Mexico	1,311,990	104,959,594
Japan	1,591,660	127,333,002
Bangladesh	1,766,750	141,340,476
Russia	1,799,670	143,974,059
Pakistan	1,989,950	159,196,336
Brazil	2,301,260	184,101,109
Indonesia	2,980,660	238,452,952
USA	3670690	293,655,405
India	13,313,380	1,065,070,607
China	16,235,590	1,298,847,624

About extrapolations of prevalence and incidence statistics for Type 1 diabetes:

WARNING! EXTRAPOLATED STATISTICS ONLY! Not based on data sources from individual countries. These statistics are calculated extrapolations of various prevalence or incidence rates against the populations of a particular country or region. The statistics used for prevalence/incidence of Type 1 diabetes are typically based on US, UK, Canadian or Australian prevalence or incidence statistics, which are then extrapolated using only the population of the other country. This extrapolation calculation is automated and does not take into account any genetic, cultural, environmental, social, racial or other differences across the various countries and regions for which the extrapolated Type 1 diabetes statistics below refer to. The extrapolation does not use data sources or statistics about any country other than its population. As such, these extrapolations may be highly inaccurate (especially for developing or third-world countries) and only give a general indication (or even a meaningless indication) as to the actual prevalence or incidence of Type 1 diabetes in that region. These statistics are presented only in the hope that they may be interesting to some people.

Let the festivies begin,

OOG