If defendants can't at least get Shaw at say a 40 percent probability, then we might as well close up shop.

Shaw's evidence has already been shown to be flawed.

I hope you don't mind me being pedantic, but probability is based on values between 0 and 1 so, in your example, Shaw at 40% would be 0.4  probability, not that I would agree with that assessment.

I am just patiently waiting for the ruling and should the Court decide for the Defendants, I suggest that the probability of an appeal is 1.

Be well