Announcement (no, this ain't it)
posted on
Nov 21, 2007 07:59AM
I guess the concensus is for it to come next week, assuming it "happens". This may be debateable, as we've rarely IMO gotten announcements when it would be best in "market time" (e.g., Fridays after the close are a lame time for an announcement - but we've gotten them). But this time - probably THE most important time ever - may be different.
Prime time, market wise, would probably be Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. But logic suggests it'll go down to the wire - next Friday after the close, or even Saturday. I hope for the former (Tuse/Wed), but expect the latter.
As for the numbers being included in the likely PRs (Alliacense and PTSC), I strongly suspect that they'd have to be included - at least in PTSC's PR. Even the lowest estimates of a three-way settlement would be far greater than any license issued to date, i.e., it would almost have to qualify as an "unusual event".
And I still wouldn't be surprised if we got a PR announcing that ONE of the Js settled, then the next, and then the next, followed by the ultimate PACER advising that complete settlement was achieved. It just seems to me that they have to be in separate negotiations with each of the Js, so it would follow that settlements would come at separate times. But if this does happen, and the settlement amounts are comparable to past licensees, perhaps the numbers won't be included.
Now I'll throw in the other "weirdness". This has to do with what Milestone has been addressing (that I FINALLY got sorted out in my head last night). There will be the settlementS of litigation, regarding primarily or totally PAST infringement. Then there will be licensing agreementS (outside the purview of the court). A PACER, if it included numbers, would probably just show the amount(s) for PAST infringement. But the PTSC PR(s), if they show a number(s), would probably be all-inclusive (i.e., settlement amount plus license amount, and maybe for all three Js depending on the timing of events). Confused yet? And that's the point I'm hitting - it could get real confusing depending on the timing of events and all.
For those looking for a "confirmation" before buying more, the first positive announcement should do the trick.
For those planning to take a bit off the table (as I intend to do), we're going to have to be on the ball and reading those PRs very carefully before we act. We should wait for ALL the numbers/info to see the biggest spike. It'll still be real tough trying to figure where it's topping out (MM games). It'll be like my bro-in-law always says - "any idiot can buy stock - the trick is to know the best time to sell, and how much".
In my situation (where I have to sell some to get by), it's going to be white-knuckles on the keyboard. So I'm full of positive anticipation, while full of anxiety over the expected tough decision-making (e.g., I'd hate to sell 10k shares only to watch the thing go up another buck or two). The truly amazing thing (to me) is that I haven't had but one drink in about a month, maybe six weeks! LOL
So I believe the complexities will persist right through to the final announcement, which might be the first announcement, or the sixth! But the complexity only affects those, like me, planning to pull a little.
By God, we're earning every penney of any gain!
Here I'll again suggest that even if we don't get any numbers, for us, a settlement is a win - and that's the key, as it opens the doors for more licensing agreements with the rest of the world.
FWIW, and I KNOW nuttin'!
SGE