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Message: Re: Folks, I am as frustrated as anyone about SP, but let's remember
1
Feb 12, 2008 07:10PM

Feb 12, 2008 07:17PM

IMO, most of you guys/gals have this all wrong, re: why our PPS continues to flounder.

It isn't the lack of transparency, necessarily.

It isn't the lack of an ongoing, alternate revenue stream, necessarily.

It has very little to do with the USPTO.

While these things certainly affect existing longs and fence-sitters who are aware, in extreme detail, of the PTSC situation, they probably don't affect the potential new investor, IMO.  And new investment will drive the PPS, IMO.

The first bit of DD a potential new investor will do is to look at our past trading pattern.  We KNOW what they'll see - seemingly very good news followed by.....(we all KNOW).  If it were you, what would you do/think? 

What's kinda funny (in a weird way) is that most of us Long longs got in before this trend revealed itself.  If you've been in for 2 years plus, what you see is the rise from 3-4 cents to 41 cents, and the divies.  Nothing to complain about, except we expected (rightfully) much more.  We were here before this trend showed up, and are so "into" this thing that we dwell on details that Joe Investor won't dig far enough to even recognize.  We, we're too close to this thing.

So, IMO, the problem is the trend.  The source?  I and many others believe it's the Swartz selling into news.  We have zero control over this.  And PTSC has zero control over this.  Swartz has control of this - until he runs out of shares to sell.

Here I must add that traders and flippers are using the trend to their advantage, and to the detriment of us all - and ultimately themselves IMO.  The trend is their friend, and nobody else's - and over time (exagerating the trend by their actions) they are probably hurting themselves, IMO.

This trend is what scares me going into April. 

This is why I'm very interested in seeing S&L's current share count.  Is he running out of shares?  With great financials in April, will he continue to dump into the news, or let us rise?  And what will the flippers/traders do?  Same ole, same ole?

These are the questions, and not "where are we with the USPTO, the M/A", or the supposed lack of transparency where I think some expect far too much of this management - more than is forthcoming from other companies (e.g., show me one company that shares it's detailed 5-year business plan - anything beyond something akin to a mission statement).

What would give me a warmer feeling right now is to see that S&L are down to under 5M shares (light at the end of the tunnel) and a few more significant licensees (passage through that tunnel via opportunities for S&L to dump pre-4/9/08).

Of course the other key re: what will happen in April will be the numbers.  The numbers from the Js, specifically, don't matter - it'll be the bottom line for the qtr that matters.

Some may recall the recent "Ron J-number queries" along the lines (I believe) of "was the settlement with the Js a 'win'?".  And you may recall my "numbers" and what my perception would be: $50M - so-so; $100M+ - good; $150M - GREAT!  (and I for one won't be too surprised if the number is far larger).

But we won't see numbers specific to the Js, we'll see an aggregate number for all revenues from licensing.  How does this skew my perception?  Well, I should add a bit to the above numbers, I suppose.  But rather than bother with that, I can make the point with those numbers.

If PTSC announces in their PR that should come with the 10Q and with a revenues number of $50M+, that might be enough to get some attention.  $100M+ (on up) will definitely get some attention - and should be enough for a really nice pop.  Newbies will see that number, then look to the profit number (i.e., revenues are somewhat meaningless if they resulted in a loss, or very small profit).

The profit number, even with revenues of $50M, won't be that great in our eyes (after legal expenses, operating costs, and taxes), but hopefully will be impressive to newbies (especially if they note that the operating cost numbers are relatively small - the other costs are "one time" to a large degree).

But, again, what will S&L do?  What will the flippers/traders do - how fast will they pull the trigger, or will they?

Those are the immediately pertinent questions.  The other questions, from way back at the beginning of this post, are questions regarding the much long term, IMO.

S&L's share count, if forthcoming, may give a clue as to what they'll do, and flippers/traders will get a clue from this as well.  Flippers/traders - who KNOWs what they'll do, though if S&L is low on shares, they may hold.

Of course the wild card in all speculation about April is that the numbers may be so large as to surprise us all.  Truly huge numbers will overcome whatever S&L or flippers/traders decide to do, IMO.  The demand will walk right over their sells.

So this, IMO, is our immediate hurdle.  Really big numbers  - great!  So-so numbers - it's up to S&L and the flippers/traders (and maybe bailers if the past trend looks to continue - how many will say "enough is enough"?).

The trend must somehow be broken.  Big numbers should break it.

That's the "roll of the dice" that keeps us floundering, IMO.

So there's my long-awaited novel.  As usual, it's focused on the very near term.  And, IMO, that's what matters, and will be the "driver", to a significant degree, for our destiny.

As may be blatantly obvious from the above, I KNOW nuttin'!

SGE 


Feb 13, 2008 06:47AM
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Feb 13, 2008 08:38AM
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Feb 13, 2008 09:06AM
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Feb 13, 2008 12:26PM
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