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Message: Re: no jumper ... i think you need a helmet - Ease

While I understand the point you're trying to make with Jump, I have to take exception to this:

"We are calculating averages based off of 25 past licenses. Now if you know anything about statistical analysis, the 25 licenses is a decent SAMPLE of the POPULATION, which means that people who understand BASIC MATH can SCIENTIFICALLY calculated a projected net income based off of past licenses."

Yes, the first sentence is correct, and is the key to my point: these are averages based on the past. But the second sentence is not really true, that is, unless you knew the numbers from the most recent licenses, and the value of infringing product sold by each infringer, past and recent. And then you'd have to apply some basic calculus, as the value of the next licenses would most likely be represented with points on a parabolic curve (an Integral) with consideration of the value of sales of infringing product (i.e., the points on the curve would actually be numbers to be applied to the value of infringing product sold by each infringer). Thus, using averages from the past may provide some insight, but this is far from "SCIENTIFICALLY calculate a projected net income based off of past licenses". To scientifically calculate a fixed amount, or even an effective range, the calcualtion/equation cannot be riddled with variables and unknowns. Even with the needed details, they are merely projections, with no consideration of things like who can yell louder in negotiations or other influencing factors.

I'm sure you recognize this. For instance, what would Intel have to pay for a license TODAY? AMD? Philips paid, what, $19M for a license when we know that we were pushing them for $22M many months prior. And they paid that $19M AFTER they had sold off 80% of their microprocessor business (which was in place when we pushed for $22M). While we must understand that their sell of so much of that business wouldn't effect the value of past infringement, we know that TPL/Alliacense has directed their attention to nailing 'em for future infringement.

I could go on, but I'm sure you get the point. IMO, those averages actually serve very little real purpose. They are interesting, and IMO may provide a projection of "absolute minimums". And maybe that's what people find interesting beyond the obvious.

I egress back into the shadows....

SGE

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