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Message: Re: if the true value of the settlement - Emty
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Mar 10, 2008 04:41AM
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Mar 10, 2008 04:47AM

Mar 10, 2008 06:00AM

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Mar 10, 2008 06:15AM

Mar 10, 2008 06:31AM

Mar 10, 2008 07:06AM

I agree with you completely.  IMO, we won't see the 10Q until after the close on 4/9/08, and all we'll see is a fat revenues number via PDS.  No details on individual settlements or licenses. 

If there are future payments to be derived from any of the settlemenst/licenses, it will IMO depend on whether they are incremental payments of an agreed fixed amount(s) or if they are customary royalty payments based on future sales of infringing products.  If the amounts are already set in stone in terms of dollars, there IMO should be disclosure of those amounts and expected dates of receipt.  If the future income is in the form of royalties with unknown exact dollar values, IMO there should be disclosure that there will be future royalty payments, and that's it.

IMO, anyone expecting more than this in terms of disclosure is dreaming.

BTW, IMO, don't underestimate the values of the licenses from Mattel, Citizen and especially DirecTV.  Mattel/Citizen - volume.  DirecTV - total dependence on our technology, i.e., there is no "work-around", without our tech their business stops in its tracks (i.e., huge leverage for our guys in the license negotiations).

Now let's make a community wish for a bunch more licensees of consequence between now and 4/9/08.  This should not only bolster our PPS a bit (higher base), but, more importantly IMO, provide the opportunity, via volume buying, for Swartz to unload into the volume.  This is my biggest immediate worry - Swartz unloading on April 10th.  While I believe the demand will overcome his probable selling, his selling could dampen the potential.

My only significant complaint is that JT/PTSC didn't buy the heck out of the stock while the window was open - either directly from Swartz (they could have wiped him out IMO) or on the open market.  The writing should have been clearly written on the wall - buy now (then) when it could have made a truly significant difference in the long run.  Now, and from here on out, it won't make as significant a difference - that ship has sailed.  Most will recall that I was screaming for this action by the company last Summer into the Fall. 

And I suspect that this failure, which IMO is so obvious, may have been the root of JT's downfall, and not some off-the-cuff remark about "tens of millions", as that was more or less a "given" regardless of what happened in TX, assuming confidence in the validity of the patents.  JT's failure to recognize that extremely obvious opportunity, with no down side, would have prompted me to show him the door. 

Some may say he was holding the cash for an acquisition.  But he himself said, in the same timeframe, that an acquisition was 12-18 months out (and this thought must have been in his brain long before he said it publicly).  Some may say he was holding just in case the patents were deemed invalid.  If that had happened, it would have been game over anyway, and $20M in the bank would not save us IMO.  No excuse.

What really amazes me is that JT did recognize that the warrant overhang was hurting us, but could not see the need to eliminate Swartz or that this opportunity (if Swartz didn't want to play) to capitalize on PTSC's own future success existed.

All that said, I applaud the BoD for showing him the door.  And now we've got Rick, with much more a "busines brain". 

JMHOs, and I KNOW nuttin'!

SGE

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Mar 10, 2008 09:31AM
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