Bluewing1 / re: how rick might be able to buy...PC
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 17, 2008 03:20PM
In response to this and your previous post, I too doubt (at least I very much hope) that there are no $120K licenses still available, though if the compnay is small enough I suppose it is still possible. Certainly, I would hope that a company Emerson's size paid more. However, to be true to my spreadsheet, I can ONLY use the historical data. It is nothing more than a look forward strictly based on the look back. However, and I beleive I've done this once before, though maybe not in this same format, I've added a 2 columns below that reflect:
First a 50% premium on the J3 licenses/settlements, and a 25% premium on post settlement licenses, leaving pre settlement licenses at the historical average.
Secondly a 100% premium on the J3 licenses/settlements, and a 50% premium on post settlement licenses, leaving pre settlement licenses at the historical average.
As you can see, based on the fact that the J3 are by far the highest gross revenue companies, the biggest impact is to their fees, though some like Tokyo Electron, Direct TV, and Mattel also are sizably different. If we do see something like the third column shows, I think the share price could well be driven over $2 again, and perhaps it'll stay there or at least close. We shall see.
Anl Revs of Licensee (Millions) | Estimated Fee Based on Historical Ratio of $1 License fee per $1956 in Revenues | Projection if 25% Premium Post Settlement & 50% Premium for J3 | Projection if 50% Premium Post Settlement & 100% Premium for J3 | ||||
26 | Q208 - cont | 11/17/2007 | TEAC | $900.00 | $0.46 | $0.46 | $0.46 |
27 | 12/3/2007 | Daewoo | $100.00 | $0.05 | $0.05 | $0.05 | |
28 | 12/6/2007 | WMS Gaming | $500.00 | $0.26 | $0.26 | $0.26 | |
29 | 12/7/2007 | Lite-On-It | $6,800.00 | $3.48 | $3.48 | $3.48 | |
30 | 12/10/2007 | Alpine | $23.00 | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.01 | |
31 | 12/18/2007 | Matsushita | $77,100.00 | $39.42 | $59.13 | $78.83 | |
32 | 12/18/2007 | JVC | $6,923.10 | $3.54 | $5.31 | $7.08 | |
33 | 12/18/2007 | Toshiba | $45,800.00 | $23.42 | $35.12 | $46.83 | |
34 | 12/18/2007 | NEC Electronics America | $10,000.00 | $5.11 | $7.67 | $10.22 | |
35 | 12/21/2007 | Verigy | $700.00 | $0.36 | $0.45 | $0.54 | |
36 | 1/4/2008 | Humax | $654.00 | $0.33 | $0.42 | $0.50 | |
37 | 1/17/2008 | Psion | $375.00 | $0.19 | $0.24 | $0.29 | |
38 | 2/5/2008 | Tokyo Electron | $7,224.00 | $3.69 | $4.62 | $5.54 | |
39 | 2/8/2008 | Direct TV | $13,160.00 | $6.73 | $8.41 | $10.09 | |
40 | 2/25/2008 | Mattel | $5,970.00 | $3.05 | $3.82 | $4.58 | |
41 | 2/26/2008 | AMO | $1,090.80 | $0.56 | $0.70 | $0.84 | |
42 | Q308 | 2/28/2008 | Citizen | $3,191.10 | $1.63 | $2.04 | $2.45 |
43 | 3/6/2008 | Gerber Scientific | $530.40 | $0.27 | $0.34 | $0.41 | |
44 | 3/17/2008 | Emerson Radio | $233.84 | $0.12 | $0.15 | $0.18 | |
Q408 TD | |||||||
$181,275.24 | $92.68 | $132.65 | $172.63 |