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Message: Bluewing1 / re: how rick might be able to buy...PC

In response to this and your previous post, I too doubt (at least I very much hope) that there are no $120K licenses still available, though if the compnay is small enough I suppose it is still possible. Certainly, I would hope that a company Emerson's size paid more.  However, to be true to my spreadsheet, I can ONLY use the historical data.  It is nothing more than a look forward strictly based on the look back.  However, and I beleive I've done this once before, though maybe not in this same format, I've added a 2 columns below that reflect:

 

First a 50% premium on the J3 licenses/settlements, and a 25% premium on post settlement licenses, leaving pre settlement licenses at the historical average.

Secondly a 100% premium on the J3 licenses/settlements, and a 50% premium on post settlement licenses, leaving pre settlement licenses at the historical average.

 

As you can see, based on the fact that the J3 are by far the highest gross revenue companies, the biggest impact is to their fees, though some like Tokyo Electron, Direct TV, and Mattel also are sizably different.  If we do see something like the third column shows, I think the share price could well be driven over $2 again, and perhaps it'll stay there or at least close.  We shall see.

 

        Anl Revs of Licensee (Millions) Estimated Fee Based on Historical Ratio of $1 License fee per $1956 in Revenues Projection if 25% Premium Post Settlement & 50% Premium for J3 Projection if 50% Premium Post Settlement & 100% Premium for J3
26 Q208 - cont 11/17/2007 TEAC $900.00 $0.46 $0.46 $0.46
27   12/3/2007 Daewoo $100.00 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
28   12/6/2007 WMS Gaming $500.00 $0.26 $0.26 $0.26
29   12/7/2007 Lite-On-It $6,800.00 $3.48 $3.48 $3.48
30   12/10/2007 Alpine $23.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
31   12/18/2007 Matsushita $77,100.00 $39.42 $59.13 $78.83
32   12/18/2007 JVC $6,923.10 $3.54 $5.31 $7.08
33   12/18/2007 Toshiba $45,800.00 $23.42 $35.12 $46.83
34   12/18/2007 NEC Electronics America $10,000.00 $5.11 $7.67 $10.22
35   12/21/2007 Verigy $700.00 $0.36 $0.45 $0.54
36   1/4/2008 Humax $654.00 $0.33 $0.42 $0.50
37   1/17/2008 Psion $375.00 $0.19 $0.24 $0.29
38   2/5/2008 Tokyo Electron $7,224.00 $3.69 $4.62 $5.54
39   2/8/2008 Direct TV $13,160.00 $6.73 $8.41 $10.09
40   2/25/2008 Mattel $5,970.00 $3.05 $3.82 $4.58
41   2/26/2008 AMO $1,090.80 $0.56 $0.70 $0.84
42 Q308 2/28/2008 Citizen $3,191.10 $1.63 $2.04 $2.45
43   3/6/2008 Gerber Scientific $530.40 $0.27 $0.34 $0.41
44   3/17/2008 Emerson Radio $233.84 $0.12 $0.15 $0.18
     
     
Q408 TD            
$181,275.24 $92.68 $132.65 $172.63
 

Mar 17, 2008 05:44PM

Mar 17, 2008 06:55PM

Mar 17, 2008 08:05PM

Mar 18, 2008 06:17AM
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