Re: PE 10 ? Borredo
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 30, 2008 11:42AM
We see eye to eye 90+% of the time, but I'm referring to this post to convey another thought. But first, a blunt stick poked at your post. You say:
"There's other factors besides numbers for this quarter.
The reexams.
The 584 appeal.
The Patent Bill.
M & A progress.
All these things could have a profound impact on the SP.
We're going to have a good quarter, that's probably a given. but other considerations could still cause the SP to veg.
I'm waiting for the whole story to play out."
Now, based on the context, I believe that you're referring to the time immediately after the 10Q hits. Like 4/10/08. IMO, none of these factors will come into play other than as an "aside". It's only about a ten calendar day window. None of these things will reach any conclusion in this short period of time. Status quo. While I agree these things could have an affect in the long run, "profound"?
The reexams. The process is strongly in our favor, and I believe we have more than competent people working this.
The 584 appeal. We'll probably come out stronger, IMO. But, bottom line, who cares? It's the '336 that matters!
The Patent Bill. If it ever makes it to a vote, and if it isn't immediately video'd by Bush (who, if you've noticed, favors big pharma), and if it even pertains to PTSC/the MMP (future patents only).
M & A progress. It'll happen when it happens, and hopefully after great deliberation and massive DD.
I guess what amazes me is that you've left off two pertinent factors, IMO, the most pertinent factors. The ones that will actually make a difference on 4/10/08.
First is Swartz. What's he gonna do? Does he have a ton of shares left? Will he hold off with whatever number of shares he's still holding? Unanswerable questions.... But it could make all the difference in the world.
Second is US. Retail. This opinion is in response to other very-recent posts. Investors jumping too soon could stunt us far more than could Swartz. Low target exit points.
And there's my link to my criticism of some recent post. People suggesting a rise to a buck (a whole buck!) with good numbers. People suggesting that we could go as high as $2.50! And with little basis - just throwing out numbers. Hyping? Quite to the contrary, IMO.
I think everyone KNOWs my expectations are much higher than this. Even ES suggested $4 with a favorable outcome with the Js. How 'bout with a "way higher than expectations" outcome? And how 'bout those, what, 14 added licensees since then?
My concern is that people reading those posts are setting their expectations, and exit points, too low. Now I'm not going to blather on about this, other than to say that everyone should be ready to adapt - real fast. What if you set your exit point at $1.50 and, on 4/10, we open at $2? What are you going to do? Sell immediately (with that sell order that you may have already placed)? Sit back?
Again, be ready to adapt. Hopefully we'll have time to carefully gleen the 10Q before any trading is possible, and maybe come to some conclusions - even beyond what's on the surface (revenues). IMO, if the revenues/apparent license fees are big enough, we will have achieved patent validation. The USPTO becomes far less an issue IMO. And more money should equate to a far better acquisition(s). These things aren't on the surface, they are underlying considerations. P/E? Who knows. Industry average is about 40. We're currently under 10. Remove some uncertainty; show us some really big bucks.
I will go ahead and throw in one further factor, momentum traders. IMO, someone jumped to our side of the fence the other day and did some significant buying. Others noticed, and helped run us up. Multiply by 10,000 people, "fence jumper offers" and momentum players. Hang on.
I strongly suggest that everyone take these things into consideration, and please don't undercut our potential on 4/10. Being conservative is fine, but don't please don't be so "absolute" in your opinions based on ignorance. You might be shooting yourself in the foot, and you're liable to hit my foot too!
So in closing I do have to say that I'm looking forward to 4/10/08 with great anticipation - and with great anxiety. It's going to be a really tough day for everyone - in a positive way. Buy? How much at what PPS? Sell? How much and at what PPS? Hold and watch? My brain hurts already!
JMHOs, and I KNOW nuttin', and neither does anyone else!
SGE
PS: PTSC historical trivia: "JAVA Chip Available - - NOW!" was published internationally on 9 April, 1999. I like the coincidence.