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Message: Re: News..GKRichard

Sep 03, 2008 05:40AM
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Sep 03, 2008 06:56AM
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Sep 03, 2008 07:03AM

Re: News..GKRichard

in response to by
posted on Sep 03, 2008 07:07AM

I wouldn't say ....."forget about the MPP"....but RG's latest actions could lead one to asume that the large dollars we all were expecting from the MPP is not there..at this time at least.

Parts of the MPP are under scrutiny, larger than we expected from the PTO, that will resrict a lot of buyers from jumping in right now...RG first told us in April in one of his first letters that he didn't expect any M&A till before year end....here we were last month, in August, with more buy in with already partly owned subsidiares, starting a JV and now a merger with Crossflo...and add in the "new company" they're looking at and that is a lot of M&A activity for the month of August when we weren't expecting much till near year end....per is own letter to us in April...

My objective is to close our first M&A transaction before calendar year-end. As a result, Patriot will continue to hold further dividend distributions, for the near term, and evaluate their applicability in future quarters. It is also our plan, at the time of a significant M&A transaction, to evaluate our ability to transfer our listing to a broader-followed, national exchange, compliant with their listing requirements.

So why all this actiivty now????...IMO RG, as he first warned us that this PTO business could take months and years, realized he had to move now and not wait for MPP rev's to flow in. He realized that they could be highly diminished, as compared to many expectations the company and we as shareholders had earlier this year.

RG IMO sees that even if we get through this drawn out affair with the PTO, relatively unscathed in the power of our patent claims, that it won't have that great an effect on our PPS. WHY?????? Because he also realizes that we are really heavy out there in the trading market when it comes to outstanding shares available to be traded and that limits PPS movement, secondly he also realizes that the investment community, private and public, now want to see more than promises and revneue expectations.

Yes we could see as much as $26Mm more ....REV'S....based on many of us here who have seen the Crossflo and Talis etc.etc. projections, but what most NEED to see is what is the profit margin expected from the rev's. Income is good for sure, but the world buys and sells based on what the...NET EARNINGS...are...not the rev's.

We have had some good progress form RG and the BOD but until they can first show good net earnings and secondly forecast, at least yearly, their earnings and thus EPS, we will tend to float around in this 20-30+ cent price range...even when we get that temporary,IMO, bounce from a good PTO review.

RG is trying to get that word out with the presentation that has been prepared and shown here on the board. It shows our activity in M&A and more importantly, although it doesn't show anything as far as expected EPS numbers, it does show clearly that RG sees the company at only 1/3 MPP rev's as compared to 2/3 from other activity, IMO, he's about to show those interested in investing in PTSC that the MPP should not be the focus of our future PPS. Rather, he and the BOD are just at the beginning stage of going into a regular profit producing company from an everyday service provider of needed security services, etc. etc....But, we may be a long way off, as much as 6-8 quarters or so, before anyone with the $$$$(institutions, funds) would start to buy in and get us on a good PPS roll, and that probably will need to be combined with a move to another exchange, with any needed action by the BOD to get us there.(ie: a RS)

Lastly, a lot of this could change with any negative news including even more drawn out delays in finishing the reexams....appeals within and outside the PTO for example. Of course, any denial by the PTO and most of the recovery in terms of PPS will take a lot longer until the new business plan has more time to unfold and help recover any negative hit to the PPS.

We are in transition and not everything may go our way as planned, but once we can show continued EPS and no fatal news form the PTO our PPS growth will begin. It just isn't right around the corner ,yet. JMHO







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