Expectations
posted on
Feb 13, 2009 09:11AM
A lot of good news seems to be lining up for PTSC. I’ve said that before and been disappointed. So why am I optimistic again? Because PTSC has a leader that has been putting our ducks in a line, including well thought out investments, and a good balance sheet. Probably more important, he's appropriately lowered expectations. That’s right “lower expectations” is good for the SP. I know I have contributed in the past to creating outrageous expectations with “we’re going to make a fortune overnight” outlooks. Failure of earnings to agree with us caused large SP falls. Now we seem to have a more rational outlook. As part of my current outlook I’m heavily influenced by my expectations of “Good PTSC News” coming soon, and the offsetting impacts of a “Faltering World Economy”. Although I’ve said before that the MMP business is recession proof, I know it’s not. We’ve seen how difficult this business is and how creative other companies can be with ways to avoid and delay licensing. MMP prospects will get more cleaver and reluctant as their businesses suffer from the world’s economic contraction. So I’m not looking for an order of magnitude improvement in license sales, even when the patents are reaffirmed. As for PTSC’s new revenue streams I think they are excellent investments in a growing market. But the same thought holds for them as for the MMP business – sales will remain slow for some time even with a stimulus package. PTSC is a good bet – long term. More now than ever.