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Message: Re: CM Blog update: Facts.
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Oct 21, 2010 12:11PM

I apologize if my comment about "a few cents" is irritating. Unfortunately, I am afflicted with Numeracy and so when large numbers pass before me I cannot resist multiplying and dividing. Here is how I arrived at the estimate behind that remark:

Based on publicly available information the gross amount of revenue the MMP has generated is on the order of $250 million. Of that, TPL's 15% fee would be roughly $37.5 million and thus PTSC would have received about half of the remaining 85%, or about $106 million.

According to PTSC's most recent 10Q, there were 408,372,771 shares of stock outstanding as of 31 August.

If the MMP were to immediately, this year, produce the same 250 million or so as it has over the past half decade, and nothing changed about the arrangements, that would amount to another 100 million or so and that would, if there were no expenses during the year, produce a maximum increase of about 25 cents per share in retained earnings and net worth.

The MMP would have to produce nearly a billion dollars to add a dollar per share to the cash value of PTSC by my reckoning. PTSC could, of course, invest its substantial capital in activities that would ensure a future stream of income, and if it were to do so successfully then the company might well be able to multiply the value of its future MMP revenue. I have no idea whether or not PTSC is planning to do any such thing, but I would point out that if all a *billion* dollars of income would achieve was to increase retained earnings and thus net worth by one dollar per share, it would seem to me that PTSC would need to do *something* constructive with that money ... to more than double its value and give actual nonspeculative worth to the stock matching what its peak value was some time ago. And, of course, there is no guarantee that the MMP will produce a billion dollars nor even that it will in future produce another 250 million.

So, with due respect and with the disclaimer that I am not a financial advisor and the above is just an exercise with arithmetic based on publicly available information, I do not think a "few cents a share" is an unreasonable ballpark estimate unless something major changes about the underlying realities we see in public.

And regardless I had no intention of demeaning, insulting, or irritating anyone; it's just about numbers and arithmetic, and I apologize if I am in error about either.

As to whether it is worth more than a few pennies to Chuck, of course it is ... you folks divide your half four hundred million ways, while Chuck was expecting to receive 55% of the other half. What's 25 cents per share for you ought to be 55 million dollars for Chuck, the man who earned that share by creating the patented technology from which all that comes. Again just about the numbers.

I wish you well

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Oct 21, 2010 12:45PM
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