posted on
Feb 05, 2012 03:09PM
Mosaic ImmunoEngineering is a nanotechnology-based immunotherapy company developing therapeutics and vaccines to positively impact the lives of patients and their families.
Message: Future SP
To those who commented on my original post (below) please read it again, especially the parts now underlined.
Especially note that last line - PLUG IN YOUR OWN NUMBERS.
Also, although it's a nice name, I am not "Brian".
For mathematicians:
LR = projection of total license revenues, for the remainder of the MMP life ($800M)
TPL = % of all royalties taken "up front" by TPL to cover their alleged costs. (15%)
SO = shares outstanding of PTSC (e.g. 410,000,000)
PC = percentage contingency of PTSC revenue from MMP for operations (3%)
The numbers in parentheses are my guess at ballpark. Don't read anything else into them.
The $800M is loosely based on a reported valuation some time ago of "$1B" of which some has already been received, plus a bit added back in since one might reasonably hope that "early adopter discounts" are in the past.
The 15% is what was last noted at the off-the-top cut to TPL.
The above is what goes to PDS - it is divided by 2 for PTSC's revenue, the rest going to "Leckron/Moore".
The 3% PTSC overhead contingency could be wildly off. However, 3% of about $310M is $10M which I feel is a reasonable amount but an accountant could make a better estimate and also take into accouny any tax matters.
Thus the "formula" is
Potential value per share = LR x (100-TPL)/100) / 2 x (100-PC)/100 / SO
i.e. (800,000,000 x (100-15)/100 /2) x (100-3)/100 / 410,000,000 which reduces to
800,000,000 x 0.85 / 2 x 0.97 / 410,000,000
= $0.804
I give the following more as an approach to a calculation than as an accurate one.
Assume no interest or taxation impacts.
Assume $800M in future license revenues.
TPL gets 15% off the top, $120M, leaving $680M to be split 50/50 by PDS yielding $340M to PTSC. That's about 83c per PTSC share - call it 80c after overheads, professional fees, board fees, board expenses and at least one more SHAM..
So if all the licenses were received on the same day a dividend of 80c per share could be paid - end of. Thus, to my mind, at any future time the SP would be no more than 80c less any dividends paid out.
Of course, if the BOD were to again skillfully invest the $340M "in the best interests of the company and its shareholders" then the potential dividends would be much less.
Plug in your own numbers.
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