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Message: Re: Opty's model and further thoughts.....(long post)
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Oct 04, 2012 09:18AM

Thanks.Exactly the kind of dialogue we ought to be having.Actually I had planned on providing the calculations that went along with the assumptions but they accidently got deleted, so I had to regenerate them.In doing so, I added some assumptions, as well as refined and corrected where necessary.I also included some reasoning for each one.

Assuming successful USITC and NDOC litigations.Unless we are successful, there is little sense in going through the analysis.And while it is possible that litigation outcome may not be 100% win or loss, I believe the MMP licensing program is at a point where we cannot settle for anything less than a clear and decisive win.So a clear and decisive win is the basis for all other assumptions.

Assuming 300+ remaining to be licensed.We may not get to all remaining 300+ targets for various reasons, but if the prior assumption regarding success is valid, there's no reason why we shouldn’t be able to license most of them.For arguments sake, let’s use 80% or 240 licenses.

Assuming the average licensing fee going forward is at least double the average of the first 100 licenses.If it is not at least double, then was the effort at the USPTO, NDOC and USITC worth it? I believe the first 100 brought in $350 million for an average of $3.5 million per license.Double it to $7 million per.

Assuming the PDS cost of obtaining the additional 300+ licenses is no more than the historic rate.I believe the cost of the first 100 was about $60 million.Using that rate the cost for 240 would be $144 million. The actual could be substantially less since there are no more USPTO reexams, and litigation would be senseless, unless the company actually did not infringe.And when the construction of remaining terms is complete, infringement or non-infingement should be more readily determinable.

Assuming all PTSC income not used for operating expenses and taxes is paid out in divys.Operating expenses are pegged at $2 milliion per year for the next 5 years or $10 million total.In the prior calculation I erroneously assumed divys are not taxed at the company.Big faux pas on my part. So tax rate of 45% is applied this time for Fed/State.

Assuming the number of shares outstanding is roughly 410 million.While current is only 403 million I suspect there will be options exercised along the way.

Calculation:

240 X $7 million ea = $1.6 billion.

Less $144 million PDS cost = $1.456 billion

50% to PTSC or $728 million

Less $10 million in Operating Expenses =$718 million

Less taxes at 45% = $395 million available for divys or $ .96/share

So taxes apparently will have a big impact on what might be available for divys.I believe there is much talk of lower tax rates going forward. At a 35% rate we get to $467 million available for divys or $1.14/share.

Opty

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