REPOST: My back-of-the-envelope calculations

HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Bentonstocks

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REPOST: My back-of-the-envelope calculations

in response to

Re: Interested to know a bit more about how to estimate value

franzneumann

posted on Sep 13, 2007 07:42AM

MiningJunkie,

I am quite happy to a be a member of the fraternity of Norontolites...

My thoughts are similar to yours, which is why I suggested to M1 that he double his $10/sh price target for 2008. I too noticed the significance of the pentlandite.

What I am now trying to get a handle on is a conservative estimate of NPV. For now, I am assuming a 500m X 50m X 100m (LXWXD) deposit to start. The depth is based on the vertical depth of the mineralization encountered in NOT-07-05. Any thoughts on what is fair assumption at this juncture?

(In response to Rockaur in response to the original posting, I did not change the the dimesnions of the deposit because holes #3 & #4 missed because, and as you later pointed out in another post, it does not mean the there is no mineralization there - they just got the azimuth or elevation angle a little wrong, since when those holes were positioned, they had even less understanding of the geopmetry of the deposit.)

My assumptions are:

1. Copper ore = 1.89 tons/yard = 2.24 tonnes / cubic metre

2. 500m X 50m X100M = 2,500,000 cubic metres

3. 2,500,000 X 2.24 = 5,600,000 tonnes of ore @ $530/ tonne (your number)

4. 5,600,000 tonnes X $530 = $2,968,000,000

5. Mine/plant development = $850,000,000

6. Mining/processing cost /tonne ??? Trying to reasearch V.B .costs right now, but I though I would put this out now for feedback.

The way its looking to me with these back-of-the-envelope calculations, is a $10/sh valuation for NOT, EXCLUDING the other projects. I have assumed $50/tonne for mining and pocessing cost for now, just to get an idea, and also further dilution (50 million shares) for further equity financing required for mine development. I expect that would also be debt financing, and my figures are just guesstimates for now. Anyone with more precise figures, or different figures, please speak up.