Re: An argument for the Long Haul: Bentonstocks
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 24, 2007 09:26PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Hi Benton,
Just wanted to clarify the intention of my post regarding the long haul to ensure that I didn't mislead others. My goal was to get people thinking about their investment strategy after hole 5 results are out.
I still stand by my prediction that NOT will be a $10 share in 2008. I called for NOT being stock of the year last February based on some good info from sharewizard and I though I might have had to eat crow when the stock hit .29. Mind you, I can remember the glee on the SH board when the share price was below .40 cents due to the sub-prime market crisis. The longs could not find enough places to find money to buy those shares. Why? Windfall was still on the radar.
Given that they have put 120 holes into Windfall, they now have a good idea of the zones they want to ramp down to. I believe there is a 3-D animation on the Noront web site that shows the ramp targets. For those who's only focus is James Bay, I suggest becoming very familiar with Noront's Windfall Lake project. According to TCP, we might have an update this week.
Anyway, the point of my post is that it is important to have a plan in place after the Hole 5 results are out. Some will take their profits and deservedly so after waiting the better part of a year with a sub $1 share price. Others will wait for Windfall. But as the longs know, Windfall will take some time to get a ramp in place, stockpile the core, and then process it. If we come back to this same spot in a year we may be part way there. This is what I call the long haul.
When i talk about Noront at a $150, I know that all things would need to go perfectly. 1) There would have to be high grades throughout both Windfall and James Bay. 2) These would need to be proven as world class properties that a major would want to develop. 3) Proven reserves would be needed from both Windfall and James Bay, with enough tonnage to justify billions of dollars of value. 4) Gold and mineral prices would need to stay equal or greater than they are today. The higher these rise, the greater the potential SP.
Do I believe this is possible. Sure. What are the odds? Getting better as we learn more. How long will this take? How does three years at a minimum sound.
What was that???
You read it. In order to get full value out of your shares, you may need to hold them for a few years. A lot of things need to happen before proven reserves are established at both Windfall and James Bay. Both properties must be worthy of hosting a world class mine before we can talk about a $50, $100, $150 share price and the market cap that represents that.
But it is possible.
Just not this week, next month, or even in 2008.
Sorry to burst the bubbles of the shortterm $150 hopers.
Now, what is a good interim price? That is the billion dollar question. As long as good results and progress are made on these two properties, we will see an appreciation of share price on an on-going basis. We will see pullbacks, and then more support. Noront is moving from a pure spec company to one that is desiring to establish reserves in the ground (tonnage) on a number of properties. As the story gets out to more and more people, and assuming that the bonanza results are not just flukes, then we will see appreciation as stronger hands hold this as a long term investment.
But it will take time. First target is $5 :) Then we will work on $10. James Bay may be all that is needed for that depending on the next ten holes or so. Who knows, hole 5 could be just enough to get there. Time will tell.
M1.
P.S. Did you ever as your peeps at PRB which properties were returned to Noront last spring? I would like to learn more about the story, and what motivated them to keep the two properties they have before the first NOT drill results. I know this is not the forum but if you have time drop me a note. Thanks
P.S.P.S. Thanks to all who sent me their submissions for their Stock of 2008 picks. I will go over them over the next few weeks but will get back to everyone who sent me an email by next week. I am not ignoring you. Things are just busy lately. Peace.