MiningJunkie.

Great post. Love 'em. We need these. Let me play angel's (NOT's) advocate in step with bullyboy...

On September 26. NOT closed at around $3.50. Your posts for that day included the following, (which are consistent with today's)

'I am "in" the position due to DE - period. 'Windfall: it just simply does not matter, at this time.'

I think you are correct in this EXCEPT that those of us who bought this stock BECAUSE OF WINDFALL know that this reaction is out of ignorance and that DE is very probably the bonus and not the other way around. You also discount the other properties since the market does as well. Again, I think this is a mistake. It is precisely because of these addtional properties that Noront is such a rare find!

You then stated...

'Tomorrow should be a repeat of yesterday with a slightly lower bias as month-end approaches and book-squaring starts to rear its ugly, malevolent head.'

This you were spot on about, except that the stock was slightly higher at end of day. I was impressed by this for sure.

You also said,
'The #5 hole is fully discounted by the market'.

However, when hole 5 was released the following morning (Thursday) we took a huge spike up ($4.75) , then settled at over $4.00 yesterday. So, you were MOSTLY correct (this very much impressed me as well) but the market did appear to give an addtional .50 for the confirmation of hole #5 (or perhaps in anticipation of windfall which would mean that was not fully discounted either).

You then said,

'IF they do come up with the hole that I want, I'll double, triple, quadruple my position.'

So, if I were a new investor on Wednesday, and followed your logic, I would not have bought at $3.50 on wednesday and I would still be on the sidelines now that we are over $4.00. I would still be waiting for the holes that 'I' want.

In today's post you again make the case that if future news is bad, lookout below... so that it is not a good time to be buying more shares:

'I would say that if one was out of the position, they could easily buy back into the stock AFTER a successful step-out hole that confirmed that the deposit was a) big or b) wide-open to depth and or strike and one could do so in the $5-6 range'

In my opinion, it is exactly because the market has totally discounted Windfall that makes this such a great buying opportunity NOW. We longs have come to fully appreciate windfall, as the market has not. So if JB has trouble, we are not concerned. Windfall is our VERY BIG backup gorilla.

Now, should one wait for the hole that they want, how much will that wait cost? It has already cost 15% (3.50-4.00). Based on the past spikes, this could be a very expensive strategy (as you say $5.00-$6.00). When the holes that 'prove it' are released, what will the price be when this happens, and how quickly will the average investor be able to buy in at this point?

I think the truth is, one never knows when the holes will stop giving us results. One guess may be as good as another. So the entry point, if you are looking for more certainty, will continue to be pushed farther into the future and be more and more expensive.

You are very knowledgeable, and I read your post with great interest, but it may be that you are too knowledgeable and that this will cost you in trying to 'time' your future entries. I think it would cost me, that's why I dont attempt it, but rather accumulate.

My feeling is that you are an excellent trader, and you will do well. But that this cold analysis of the current market may be blinding you to whole incredible picture, which one comes to have after looking at the company, its story, its properties and its cast of incredible and trustworthy characters.

Your fellow NOT lover

BK