risk versus reward
posted on
Oct 04, 2007 06:00AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
hello friends,
i am back from china, so wanted to catch up and address some questions some of our fellow board members have at this time.
currently a lot of shareholders are questioning whether they should add, hold, or sell. many are trying to justify, or not justify, the current market cap based on the evidence so far. that in a nutshell is what investing and speculating is all about. none of us know the future, but we can make educated deductions based on the facts so far.
i am trying to give a conceptual framework for those newer members to be able to analyze what is in front of them. what i mention below is very brief and short hand, i have done hundreds of hours of work on this company so far and am still learning. but it will hopefully give some of the newer members a way to better understand what they are looking at, they can then make their own, more informed decision, whether it is noront or some other investment.
i bought a large block of noront (also freewest) based on the windfall lake potential. when double eagle hit, everything changed. as i have been in the market for over 30 years and traded on the floor of the cbot i am fortunate to have some history of how markets act. many of the newer investors are finding this to be their first "big mover" of a stock. the first time you see something like this and even future times can be difficult but you do learn a few things with time and research.
some things to keep in mind are that noront, at the present time, as i see it, has more reward potential then risk at its current valuation. i say this based on the type of metals found, the concentration in the recent holes, and the length of the material found. when you compare this to other major finds (as i mentioned in earlier posts) like the merensky reef in south africa, the norilsk complex in siberia, the stillwater mine in nye montana, the voiseys bay (so often noted), and the sudbury district, you get an idea of what a BIG play can be. this gives one perspective, that is what i think is most important now. *** perspective ***.
if this hits like it can, you might move up to say, 10 times its current valuation. if it turns up nothing more, you might lose $3 from todays price. yet my analysis (for my consumption as i think out loud, so to speak) is that if i get lucky and the mining camp proves up, i make $20 to $30 (or more) per share, if i am unlucky then i lose $3 YET to me the odds of both occuring are about equal based on how i analyze the property and compare it to other mining camps. other odds are that something in the middle will occur. this gives me an investment curve similiar to a statistical curve.
also a note on luck as mentioned above, the more work i do, the more luck i seem to have!
for me, this is what in poker is called betting on a rich pot, you may not win the hand but the risk reward is so favorable you have to stay in.
once again, no one can address YOUR investing situation but yourself and the most important key to investing success is to take responsibility for your own trades and decisions. no one can do the work for you, your gains are yours and your losses are yours.
to help ensure you have more gains then losses you need to do your own homework. sites like this, and the internet at large are great resources. study other mines and their grades and distance of strike, understand the likelihood of finding more tonnage near a high grade intercept. (this is why the old saying that the best place to find a gold mine is next to an exisiting one).
after i have done the risk reward analysis for future drillholes, combined with the fact that noront has some excellent other prospective properties, it seems FOR ME:
** the risk is in not owning noront at these current valuations**.
if the future double eagle holes turn out to find nothing of additional value, the current defined area will still provide value. the #5 intercept is truly astounding when compared to what is usually found. this is really important to get your head around. the intercept is so rich and concentrated it takes ones breath away when comparing to other sites. it leads me to speculate that this will connect with other high grade bulk tonnage as this is drilled off. no sure things, so one can only base ones decision on what they understand about other successful mining camps, and i also am speculating that this area will be a mining camp when it is fully explored.
drill results will drive the share price in the near term, no doubt.
based on what i see thru today, i am still holding all the shares i have at the present risk reward ratio. i may be stupid, i may be wrong. you may see things entirely differently and sell now, that is what makes a market, different analysis, different opinions.
do your own homework
be right and sit tight.
regards,
jeff