Misfit's Midnight Musings
posted on
Oct 23, 2007 09:11PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Hello NOT Brotherhood, sisters, and sideliners,
Been away out of town again but have been fortunate to be able to check the SP on my cell phone's mobile browser. Got a little sidetracked with other things. You see, I was at a party last week and played something called a Wii. A video game of revolutionary proportions from a technological point of view.
Anyway, it is a very therapeutic thing for Notaholics. Grab a Wii controller and numchuk and virtually box with your wife and all of the sudden NOT share price become less important. :)
Nice to see the SP reach a record close today. The NOT train continues to charge ahead with no stop in sight.
The past week has been quite nice. Noront has entered into what I call the "no brainer" phase. Those that hold it should not worry themselves with small details from here on out. Though we still see some swings, the naked shorters are gone, the hope of a PP for those looking for discount shares is just a rumour and nothing more, and we are starting to see the institutions exert control over the share price. A stabilization growth period is upon us.
The large funds did not buy to lose money. The current share price shows confidence in what is coming up rather than a large number of people gambling in the future.
Why?
The results. Those that familiarized themselves with the significance of the recent drill results know this is a rare find. Though hope has been built into the share price, the share price has moved cautiously since early September. As we go farther and learn more, the price will continue to increase. The increases alone will stabilize prices, as those accumulating hold to protect their investment. Most of the loose share have been shaken. Volumes are dropping as shorters know the risk is too high to make a measly 10-30%. They are now playing the side plays.
Just a few observations from the few posts I read today. Rosedale, excellent work in dispelling the financing rumours. NOT has close to 25M in the bank and there is more warrant money to come. Every property is covered in terms of current drilling and ramping plans. And the management is as lean a ship as they come. They work for options and do not milk the treasury with consulting fees like many others.
I have a few predictions for the next week. Some may seem obvious so I apologize.
1. Expect a news release before the AGM starts. More likely a halt if news is announced during the AGM. It would not be surprising if some assay results were released, as it has been quite a while since we last had results.
2. This is a stretch but I expect we will hear about the plans for a future company divestiture into two parts. One representing Noront pre-DE and one representing the DE lands. This could happen a number of ways, but I still hold for a one for one share offering in which case each shareholder would receive one share of a new company for each existing share they have and will continue to hold in NOT. Each company then would see its price rise and fall accordingly. I am not sure of the tax implications of this, but I know other companies have done this.
Majors have been inquiring so if a divestiture is not in the works, then a JV is likely. This would help NOT in that someone else will carry the large bill of continuing to tap into Double Eagle, including drilling the other areas of the property and building the infrastructure needed for a future mine. Noront does not have the $$ folks. Just the sad reality. It will take billions to turn this into the next Voisey Bay and I would be surprised to see any juniors still around within the next two years. A JV would also serve to protect the interests of the company as a JV agreement helps tie up the lands in case of a takeover. Better two involved in a fight than one. They key will be finding the right JV partner if they choose to use this route.
Enough of my predictions. The AGM will be historic in terms of NOT's history. To think the share price was around 16 cents when the last one was held. It has been a remarkable year.
Today we hit a close of $6.24. That is only $3.76 off of $ 10. We are close to 2/3 of the way their in just two short months. A few more holes and we may see this as soon as Christmas. Why do I believe this? Who invests $5 to $6 in a company just to make 10%. Large institutions are looking for a nice long term return that is balanced against the risk.
Though we will continue to see things move up and down, the long term prognosis looks good when all the properties are taken into consideration. Just imagine what this will look like next spring when the Windfall ramp, Burnt and Mexico drilling, and the obscure Chine projects all report their results.
So I wish all the best. I will check in from time to time. I still hold my Noront shares but an nurturing some other plays that I hope will achieve a quarter of the success NOT has. Like NOT required between December 06 and September 07, these other plays require a lot of my attention to ensure that I do not miss the next big one. 50 plays to sort through in terms of leap points and five to make decisions on each day to ensure the risk to payoff ratios remain in my favor. It is nice that NOT has become a no-brainer.
Here's to $10 and upwards in the future,
Misfit1.