in situ value, why noront is worth more then most think, #4 and #5 of 5
posted on
Nov 26, 2007 03:25PM
hello friends,
on 10/26/07 we covered why a typical rule of thumb is that the in situ value of the minerals in the ground is often valued around 10% in terms of shareholder market cap. this is based on historical experience in the mining community of what it costs to get the ore out of the ground and converted to shareholder wealth.
as mentioned, in my view, noront IS MUCH DIFFERENT from a "typical" valuation model. and as such obviously worth more than the 10% often accorded average mining firms. this was noted and explained in #1 covering "grade of ore" on 10/26/07, we continued to discuss why in:
2. type of ore
3. quantity of ore (or tonnage)
which was posted on 11/8/07.
(if you have not already had a chance to read these 2 earlier posts you can still do so by clicking on the photo of errol, above left, that will take you to my list of prior posts, go down to the 10/26/07 post click and read, then later move to the 11/8/07 post, click and read. the two posts have a cumulative 100 or so thumbs up so far, so some readers have found the 2 earlier posts informative.)
okay, sorry to be so slow with #4 and #5, which follows below. the wife and i have been busy, relatives etc.
the next two discussion points, #4 and #5, are fairly easy.
(also before i forget: rockaur and one other geologist expert on this site, whose name escapes me - my apologies, are both excellent and most helpful in understanding the geology of double eagle. a big thanks to both of them for helping us with their explanations and modeling. i know enough to know they know what they are talking about and greatly appreciate their sharing)
onto more new stuff:
4. where the ore is located geographically.
the double eagle ore is located in canada. canada is one of, if not, the most forward thinking and helpful countries in the world which to build a mine. with solid and reasonable governments at both the local and national level in terms of mining when compared to many other countries. yes we are all aware that nobody is perfect but canada is at the top of the list when it comes to mining when compared to other countries.
this means if we are lucky and find a minable quantity of platinum and related group metals, which is my big hope. we will have something very very special. one of the very rare mines of platinum group metals, hopefully with the bulk being platinum, in a safe secure country. about 90% of pgm's are mined in such bastions (tongue firmly in cheek) of mine owners rights and safe investing as south africa and russia, ouch!.
even if we fail at pgm's going forward and JUST have a major nickle and copper find we are better off having it in canada then most other countries of the world when it comes to a government respecting rule of law and shareholders (mine owners) rights.
the only negative, and it will not remain a negative if the tonnage continues to prove up, is the location related to proximity to roads, infrastructure, smelters, etc. this is a minor and largely irrelevant issue IF enough ore is found. at a certain level of tonnage found, the cost of moving in the plant and facilities to build out a mine and process the ore will be spread over a large enough base as to be minor to the overall cost per ton. if this were to remain a small deposit and nothing else is found in the area, it is a major issue. i know which way i am betting.
if you have ever had great assets destroyed or severely value impaired (i have many times) by
greedy grasping governments you will appreciate the value additive feature of having a mine in canada.
in a nutshell, a mine in canada, all other things being equal is worth more then a mine in most other countries.
5. where the ore is located on the site
this is also easy. the double eagle ore is found close to surface intially and then apparently dips. this helped us find it quickly and cheaply once the drill was in the right place. with little overburden to remove regarding the close to surface ore this will allow any mine operator to begin operations at that point and quickly begin mining profitable ore instead of waste rock. this will allow the mine owner to more rapidly recover their investment and pay off the bank debt. and as detailed in #1 from the 10/26/07 post, the quicker you pay off the loans of the mine the more value is added to the mine due to the way banks control the mine owner.
so far the ore appears to be following a "traceable pattern" for lack of a better description, it is not a massively fractured system at this time. so you can easily follow it as you mine the ore to depth.
unrelated to in situ, but possibly of interest to others:
i have read every post on this noront site and done quite a bit of other due dilegence. as such i have not sold a single share. i still very much like what i see and understand. the drills still have to step out and further expand the tonnage from what we currently have had explained per news releases and the annual meeting teleconference. from what i understand about this business after more then 30 years of studying and investing in the markets i am comfortable holding pending further drill results.
i have not tried to trade this security for a very good reason, one great press release and it may be almost impossible to get back in from a psychological point of view. the human psychology of trading fills many worthwhile books. you can read jesse livermore, van tharp, jim sinclair, and jim rogers among others if you really want a great education. they all discuss what happens if you get out of position.
when i say i have not sold a single share it is because i am afraid to miss out by being out of position if a great news release should come out.
i have traded on the floor at the chicago board of trade - one of the worlds major exchanges, as such i am not averse to trading nor am i lacking in the skills of a successfull trader according to some.
my forte is fundamental analysis but i have also reviewed and tested or tried many many hundreds of systems and technical indicators. some of them have a place for CERTAIN investments at CERTAIN times. maybe you have found the "perfect system or indicator" that has eluded other investors for so long? good for you if you have.
yet it is also known that some investments are what are called "rich pots" to use a poker analogy. another analogy that i see today with noront, whether at $4, $5, $6 OR $7 is the risk is dimes to the downside and dollars to the upside. yeah i know $7 to $4 was dollars but i think you get the point and for me there is still a very valid point to what was just written. future news releases will of course alter this concept.
there are certain investments where you do not have to optimize the swings of the share price to make a lot of money and you may find yourself regretting trying to be to clever. that is why i am sitting tight till proven right or wrong by the drill. i can live with the recent move from $7.05 or so down to $3.80 or so. i did not like it or enjoy it. can i live with getting clever and selling at x and seeing it run to 4x or 6x or 10x or ???x, when my work has told me what i need to know??
i have placed my bet and till further drill results i am willing to back it with patience in addition to my $. you may see things differently and more power to you, thats what makes a market.
each individual has his own skill level, understanding, and circumstances, so what is right for me may be wrong for you. you have to make that decision for yourself, it is your money. every investor needs to take sole responsibility for their investments. when you look in the mirror each morning who you see is who YOU have to live with. my experience was that as soon as i took full responsibility for ALL of my trading decisions and the blame and accolades that went with MY decisions i became a much better trader. you may find this insight useful.
from what the press releases say, my understanding of nickel and related deposits, etc. i am sitting tight pending further news.
i am happy with the joint ventures to date etc.
also windfall and the other properties provide an added layer of comfort to my psyche.
additionally, being from and living in the united states. it is obvious that this is still mostly a canada story. very few down this way have a clue. for example look at the tsx-v volume in noront on american thanksgiving day thursday 11/22/07. no drop in volume on the canadian exchange as american investors were off eating turkey and ham. why? easy, there are likely very few american investors involved with noront stock at this time, they were not missed because they are not in this play yet in a big way. (fyi american investors noront shares are mostly traded on the canadian exchanges via their american brokers - some pink sheet trades exist but look at the volume, not much to speak of in the pinks for noront).
this is GREAT news as it means, if this perspective is correct, that a large amount of buying power will be unleashed once the story is understood (or promoted) down in the u.s. of a.
other points of interest and good news for noront, "THE BIG 4" involvement over at BMK and thus, the area. and "THE BIG SIX" talking with noront. (whether it is 4, 5, 6, or 7 etc majors talking with noront lets call them "THE BIG SIX" for simplicity.
if noront continues to prove up the find at double eagle, the above mentioned groups, to some degree, will turn on each other and the price of noront stock will be optimized. out of the 10 or so big hitters mentioned above it will be every man for himself and 2 or 3 of the 10 or so players will seriously step into the fray if noront finds enough ore. right now "THE BIG 4" and "THE BIG 6" are all kicking tires, AND strategizing, based on what the news indicates.
once again, don't believe what i or anyone writes, do your own due dilegence, verify your facts to see what i and many others think we see. this is the most encouraging thing i can say to my friends here at agoracom.
all the best.
be right and sit tight.
regards,
jsq