OK Up is a lot cozier than down, but realistically, price can do almost anything until drilling clears the haze. You may not like it or realize it, but BHP the world's largest at around $200 Bn , saw an almost 20% price swing the last Q of 07.  They  have it all, need nothing from anyone, and yet a combination of arbitrage, manipulation by the big IB's and Fear of the Fed's motives (which are legit), moved 35 Bn around like pocket change.  Speculative means  there are great upsides, a balance of downsides, and massive inherent volatility. This stock has been absolutely and remarkably stable. I would be more concerned about home valuation than the mortgage , or would limit speculative issues to 5% of net worth unless you enjoy this white knuckler.