Quite simple: If the present value of the enterprise future netnet cash flow, plus npv of residual value ,( both calculated using current conservative inputs for revenue , exp, risk rates and interest rates) is realistically far in excess of M/C , you have a value buy. If less than current M/C, it is overvalued, stay away. Speculative means there are major inputs to the equation you need to to speculate on, that is take the risk of what your head tells you is realistic input. That is the 100,000 foot view, but if you do not have a clue on market cap vs. value, better get some good advice. Speculative issues frighten most analysts away, and it takes experienced insight into an industry to assess the risk/reward relationships of a spec. stock. That is why it seems odd to me that the collective non-NOT M/C for this play equals or exceeds NOT's, when, all other things equal, NOT is the least speculative, allbeit still speculative.