The wake up call: the halt
posted on
Jan 29, 2008 05:20PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
When the halt came in yesterday morning, I was filled with immense excitement. Excitement I hadn't felt in the market since the last series of NOT halts. Soon after the halt my phone started ringing and emails and text messages started hitting my desk. A number of NOT followers from accross the country and I began speculating on what it could be... we had many similar guesses to those posted on the board. My bet was it wouldn't be halted for assays unless they hit 9 or 10% nickel... I was wrong, yet not too far off. The funny thing was, in all our speculation it became clear that there were far too many good pieces of news that could be arriving with this halt. It was gut check time.
Over the past few months I had watched the share languish but continued buying down, even to the point of getting a nice chunk under $3.00. I can be honest, those NOT shares bought under $3.00 were the hardest NOT shares I ever bought... perhaps the hardest shares I have bought of anykind in a long time. It was much easier buying NOT over $5.00 then it was buying them under $3.00. Even today, paying $4ish felt fine.
My problem yesterday was the question of did I have enough shares of NOT. Given all the due dilligence I have done over the past months, was I prepared for the payoff? I am sure there are many on this board who had the same question running through there head... worse, what about the ones who had been trading the swings and would now have to sit on the outside and wonder how high they would have to buy back. For that matter, would they be able to swallow there pride and buy back much higher, knowing they had let this one off the hook for peanuts.
I realize there is no need to be greedy, but in truth, we only get a few real homeruns in our lifetime. I assume most of us here think this could be one of them. My thoughts, if you only get a few homeruns, you better put a little more money down on the ones that can change your financial position in life.
If this halt was news of a major step out, or perhaps Johnny, better yet June, hit massive sulphides at DE2, was I in the position I wanted and planned on being in. Quickly I realized, for all the problems in the market, and the poor performance of the share price, I had taken my eye off the prize. There were still many NOT shares I wanted to own. If June had struck massive sulphides and the black fluid from the earth was coarsing over DE2, the homerun pitch would surely be on the way.
As the minutes past during the halt, my contacts and I realized the past months bargains may soon be gone. We rationalized it would be OK to buy back in at $5 or $6.00, especially if June had hit a second anomoly and the stock started running... I even hoped that the market would give us a brief buying opportunity at the open, spiking down, trying to shake the nervous out. Wishful thinking on my part, but it was all I had. We concluded that our best chance to get shares down here were likely behind us and we'd have to be prepared for whatever the news brought.
Finally the news came out, very good news, but not the news to drive the price out of reach. A nice move yesterday no doubt.
So, the gut check of yesterday was a wake up call for me, and hopefully many others out there. Do you have all the shares you want going into the next few months? Do your family and friends know about NOT? Are you prepared for the possibility that this may be one of the few homeruns we get? When the next halt comes, you can bet I will be cheering for the stepout or second anomoly... and my share position will also be prepared for such news.
The clock is ticking on DE2. Thank you for the wake up call Richard.
please due your own DD, not financial advise
regards
cwallace