Re: Share Price Discussions and Takeout Valuations-Quiz
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 11, 2008 04:48PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Although I suspect that you are correct that NOT will have to dilute share price further, maybe, just maybe, we might not have to.
First, as stated in the most recent MD&A, Cash and equivalent on hand as of October 31/07 was $26MM. Assume a burn rate per month of $2.0MM for November/07-Janaury/08. Therefore, we have approx. $20MM at the start of February, 2008. (Note, my response from Noront Management via Agoracom was that the monthly burn rate was expected to be $2.5MM beginning in February 2008 for both Windfall and DE)
With the above in mind we have:
$20,000,000.00 | Cash start February, 2008 | |
$ 4,408,500.00 | Exercise of warrants (1) | |
$ 4,062,500.00 | Exercise of options (2) | |
$26,000,000.00 | Private Placemet | |
$16,250,000.00 | Exercise of warrants(3) | |
$ 2,094,000.00 | JV Payments Yr.1 | |
$72,815,000.00 | 2008 Cash |
Again, from the most recent MD&A:
1) Warrants outstanding with weighted average exercise price of $0.75 expiring in 2008
2) Options outstanding with a weighted average exercise price of $1.30 expiring between 2008 and 2012.
3) Warrants as per the most recent Private Placement with an acceleration clause of share price trading above $6.00 for 10 consecutive days.
Note: More capital potential with additional JV deals.
With a burn rate of $2.5MM per month, the above would equte to 29.13 months of additional exploration. Quiz, if we use your model that we wil require an additional 200 holes to prove a world class deposit (as you stated, based upon results to date), we will require approximately 24 additional months of drilling. (September/07 through mid-December we drilled 29 holes or an average of 2 per week). Keep in mind that at that time we were using a couple of tired rigs which were prone to breakdown and now we have Johnny and June humming. Also, if I recollect correctly, we should expect additional drills come March which will drastically reduce our timeline.
With respect to the above, a few assumptions have been made but IMO, all are reasonable. The 10 consecuative days above $6.00 should happen and if so, another large chunk of change will be added to the coffers - obviously, this will have the greatest positive cash implication (short of another PP) Also, I am assuming that all options will be exercised but if only a percentage, it will not have a large impact to the above numbers.
I know that around the time of the most recent Private Placement, there was some discussion with respect to the Fully Diluted number of shares.
Based upon the above, here is what I ascertain are the fully diluted number of shares:
118478582 | As per MD&A | |
2939000 | 1/2 warrants expiring in 2008 | |
3125000 | Outstanding options | |
6500000 | Recent PP | |
3250000 | Recent PP warrants | |
134292582 | Total F/D |
So quiz, utilizing your model and the possible scenario that we will not require any additional dilution, my valuation is $58.08 per share.
Comments always welcome.
GLTA
Milsy1 - More Sleepy than CD