posted on
Mar 13, 2008 06:46AM
A comment on potential suitors. FNX (market cap $2.5 bn.) is just too small considering NOT's may eventually be bigger. As well, they look ready to concentrate on their INV interest which they share with Teck. For reasons you indicated ,Teck(cap is $18bn.) is very unlikely, and has the INV shared interest to focus on re: Ni. Sherritt has its hands full financially with Ambatovy . It is hard to imagine at this point that Vale Xstrata will not be the biggest $ synergy . A new smelter will be many billions and it is a lot more economic to transport ore the higher the grade. Of course it ALL depends on the ultimate size and grades of the deposits , the bigger and better, the more options. These are very early days and we have many many months ahead to do our daydreaming while RN builds our fortunes. The most ikely outcome will be Vale in the long run, but that will only happen at a reasonable price when RN has all the majors seriously interested. Because the really big international guys(incl BHP, Norilsk, Rio, Vale ) want to be the swing supply, The bigger the deposit and the higher grade, the more it will be their " must-have". I seriously disagree with the view of some posters that the big guys will sit back waiting for a bargain. The world has changed dramatically in 5 years, with the US no longer able to tank the world economy simply by enduring a short recession.