If it takes the analyst sector 6 months to recognize a recession, I have little confidence in their ability to find bottom within weeks of the second largest issuer of US mortgage bonds nearly forced to bankruptcy.

Bear is not alone, and even should the Fed succeed the US Financial sector will still remain burdened with debt, dark balance sheets, write-offs, decreasing leverage, and devestiture. The indicators may lead the market, but the write-offs have yet to influence the indicators.The fed does not predict a recession for the same reason it is frowned upon to put a run on the banks.

When an analyst praises an equity or circumstance, it is to support a long position.