Various musings
posted on
Apr 18, 2008 07:55PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Much interesting discussion today.
Here's one of the things that strikes me, though. The guy from Vale being present at the luncheon is both good and bad. Good, for obvious reasons. Bad, because don't think for a second his purpose is to make any non-insider shareholders of NOT or any other of the ROF companies rich people. If Vale likes what they see sufficiently, they may well attempt to negotiate a buy-out with NOT, in other words, a friendly buy-out.
Now here's the thing about friendly buyouts - about 1 in 10 yield a share price that people like us are happy about. (And that is irrespective of the fairness of the deal, cuz typyicaly, people like us are not at all objective in how we value "our" company!)
If things go very, very right for NOT, I hear valuations of $35 to $100 per share. Stop to think what that means in terms of the current share price of $5 - anywhere from a seven to a twenty-bagger - and that's on top of the ten bagger many here enjoy now. Picking an in between number of, say, a thirteen-bagger, not too many companies can boast those, especially in such a short time frame. That should indicate the speculative nature of this venture, and the fact that nothing is certain yet (as an example, lots of things that people felt or reported were in the bag a week ago, are not yet in the bag). That also tells me that there may be holders of huge blocks of NOT stock that may not be quite so emotional as retail investors, and, faced with an offer of $12 or so, they may well be very tempted to sell. As much as I love what's going on with the ROF, if on Monday someone said, "I'll give you $12 per share, but you have to sell me all your shares and you can never buy NOT back again," it would be mighty difficult to turn that down.
As we prove more up, or get more promissing assay results, and our share price increases, the price at which folks may sell also increases. My experience is that everyone loves the thought of a buyout, and interest by a major, that is, until it happens.
If we think the warrant holders may have heard something a little more detailed than what the public has heard so far, what do you think the guy from Vale knows so far? I'm hoping all the JV agreements are carefully drawn, so that no other JV or group of JV's can gain any particular leverage against NOT - cuz if there's a way, a major who is accustomed to takeover strategies, will not doubt find it.
We need our share price to get to $8-$10 (whatever it takes to get there, great assays on E2 will surely get us at least part way there), then, all of a sudden, a $12 offer doesn't look so great. Now, we're talking more in the $17 to $20 range, and some far more serious money.
I don't have the experience or knowledge to say how many mining plays have looked this promising, yet proved disappointing in the end (that would be very interesting to know). I do know, however, that great success in difficult to achieve, and thus it happens rarely.
And Neil Novak actually thought there was a possibility he'd have the 43-101 by the luncheon? C'mon, I'd be pleased to have that by the middle of July. And for those of you who do not know, a 43-101 is a very conservative document, so whatever numbers might be thrown around here as the time draws near, well you get the picture.
I'm very pleased with NOT and all that's going on. I feel some are overly optimistic, and may influence others to their detriment (and certainly not intentionally). On the bright side, I'm generally wrong.