HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: CVRD and the crown jewels

CVRD and the crown jewels

posted on Apr 19, 2008 09:24PM

Goodevening NOT

A few points:

Thank you to those who attended the luncheon and for reporting. Of note, nice to see BMO Nesbitt Burns people sitting at our AGORACOM table, perhaps next time we'll fill our own table, lol... Regarding the BMO people, although they could have been brokers, it would be far more interesting if they were from the research department. I PM'd Snug and QQ, unfortunately we know nothing further on who they are. I suppose time will tell.

The point, if a major bank's brokerage house picks up coverage on NOT, a large amount of brokers, and potentially their clients will be exposed to the story. Those are potential buyers.... although we all know this story through and through, there are so many who are in the dark. I appreciate Genuity being on board, but, I would love to see a big bank house step in with coverage. Thanks to the table for all the info.

Next, regarding CVRD, a few points. Great to have them present at the meeting. I am not certain why they were there, I think we all have a good idea. Could they be a potential buyer, you bet. Are they likely the hottest one's on our tail, I doubt it. Please here me out on this, and of course, this board is open for discussion.

If CVRD was the company with the highest intention or desire to acquire NOT, NOT management at this point would likely know this... would they make a friendly deal? maybe, or if there were any potentially hostile bidders, why not set someone else up at the table with you... CVRD would be an excellent fit for NOT. That said, if someone else is hot on NOT... why not partner with CVRD for 10%, and raise the price for the other buyer(s). And, raise us some more cash while we are at it.

If in the end we are aquired by CVRD, great... but if partnering causes buyer number 2 or 3 to raise their ante', even better. I believe the first partner NOT chooses, will be the partner "NOT" wants or needs... not necessarily the one who wants NOT most.

Next, regarding some of the large prices people are talking about taking over NOT for... anything is possible. I am not saying 100billiion... but, lets remember our market cap is currently measured in the hundreds of millions. We have a long ways to go. Lets look at recent takeovers.

CVRD bought Inco for $19 Billion in cash. Rio Tinto bought Alcan for $38.1 Billion in Cash. I got news for you, when it says in cash, that means, for the most part or nearly all, borrowed money.

In cash $10 billion would be, I'm not sure, $60 or $70... this is a joke for the big guys. If this is a world class deposit and they want it, they will have no problem finding cash under the mattress.

I remember reading up on the INCO deal and that CVRD would have it payed off within 2.5 years given what happend with the price of nickel. The deal was based on long term nickel prices of $3 a pound... guess what, within a year Nickel was more then $20 a pound. Guess how much cash flow that throws off... I think she is paid in full in a few months and they borrowed nearly the whole $19 Billion. That is amazing.

If there ever was the potential for a "zero down mortgage" it is in the commodity/mining space. Of course, these big miners cash flows are ridiculous... CVRD is suppsed to cash flow $150 billion in the next 5 years, (recenct Merryl report)... I think BHP is to earn nearly $25 billion this year.

FYI, for the newbies, there is a significant difference between cash flow and earnings.

The point, $3 billion, $5 billion, $10 billion, whatever your number, if it is a big fish who swallows the ring of fire whole, they will pay for it with no problem at all, and likely in cash. Given how well CVRD stock has done since the INCO takeover, maybe we outa hope for shares, (na, stick with the cash)

Finally, to Old Joe's comment, about CVRD needing to split from the Brazilian Gov't. I am not sure it this is needed or not but that noise is out there. Likely correct.

Of note, I have heard numerous times over the past 6 months that CVRD would float there Canadian Nickel assets back onto the TSX. That would be great, Sudbury and Voiseys Bay could come home, atleast partially. I suspect they would have thrown in the Falconbridge assets if the Xstrata deal would have come together. Oh well.

The reason CVRD would due this is to reduce their borrowing costs. By listing on the TSX, and borrowing through the new TSX company, their costs would drop considerably, 150 to 200 basis points... given the credit market today, who knows how much.

Now some conjecture on my part,... if CVRD did split off the Canadian Nickel assets and kept a majority position, that would be one of the trophy Canadian companies to own, a must own.

Would the Ring of Fire, Noront specifically, be a good fit in this new company? I suspect it would.... whether it would be the crown jewel among Sudbury and Voiseys? I don't know. But as Richard might say, "This may be the grand daddy of them all." (see March luncheon for direct reference).

Looking forward to the months ahead.

respectfully.

Due your own DD, Not financial advise

regards

cwallace

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Apr 20, 2008 06:26AM
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