02/07/08
Speculation runs rampant
The doomsday scenarios have started -- $2.00 per litre gasoline; unaffordable airfare; fewer cars on the roads meaning massive job losses – and that means gas prices are on the way up.
No real-world experience, folks – it’s just speculation; do with it what you will.
There is talk that China is stockpiling energy reserves in advance of the Beijing Olympics, and that once they’re past all that demand will magically go away and we’ll see more normal crude costs, and by association, lower pump prices.
There’s talk of unrest in places that either pump oil or have oil-lines running through their countries. This will disrupt supply so prices are going up to try and dissuade usage.
There’s talk that previously untapped oil fields will come on stream to alleviate demand for crude and therefore bring costs down.
There’s talk that middle-East nations will turn off the taps as a means of punishing western countries that back Israel.
There’s talk that Saudi Arabia will open up the taps on their oil wells and get more oil on the market, to better supply the demand.
Talk, talk, talk … that’s all it is. And yet, many people who are normally very careful about what they believe, are selfishly holding this talk as gospel.
We are getting mixed messages because investors thrive on consumer uncertainty in order to drive up the price of the things in which they are investing. If you think we’re going to run out of oil in five years, for example, you know more people are going to be willing to pay more for oil as it gets closer to that date. You decide to purchase a piece of a smaller pie that more people are going to want to have. The guy who’s selling his share knows more people are going to be vying for his sale, so he asks a little more than he would have yesterday, and the guy who decides to hold off another day will ask even more for his share, and so on. As it becomes apparent that shares are going to be even more in demand, prices go up more (sometimes skyrocketing).
All of it is based on the notion that we are not going to have as much oil tomorrow as we do today, so therefore our lifestyles are going to be disrupted.
I have news for you … our lifestyles are being disrupted right now.
Speculation is running rampant and now it seems as if some investor groups are actually manipulating this speculation with unsubstantiated announcements that don’t directly impact the price of stocks (that, we frown on!) but rather play on the emotions of investors, resulting on their impacting the price of stocks (we can’t control the way people react to certain announcements, right?)
It’s like feeding information to somebody, believing that person will behave in a certain way according to the news, and then when that person acts exactly as expected sitting back and saying “I’m just the messenger; I don’t control what that person does.”
That’s a kind of conspiracy, and perhaps it’s time we started laying conspiracy charges against people with vested interests who manipulate markets into behaving in a manner beneficial to the few, at the cost of the many.
As for the investors, you have no right complaining about the cost of fuel because you are responsible for getting it to where it is.